Grain Comments   05-05-2021

Good Morning:

The higher trend continues with nearby soybean futures leading the way. Continued dryness across Brazil and the strengthening cash markets remain the supportive features. The outside markets are mildly supportive with equities and energies trading higher while the dollar is under mild pressure.

Crude oil is higher and appears poised to make a run at the contract highs that are less than $1.00 above the market.  The API report showed a much larger draw of crude and distillates, which if confirmed would be the largest draw since January.

Argentina’s Parana river levels are becoming a concern due to shallow water. Cargo ships are being loaded between 5,500 and 7,000 tonnes less per vessel to navigate waters that are nearly 8’ below normal.

Rains moved out through the south and southeast yesterday, once again heaviest from the Ohio River Valley down into the U.S. Southeast, while other line of rain (and some mixed precip and snow) moves through the Dakotas and NE this morning. That action will be light in the north through the end of the week, with some heavier rains falling from NW to south across the belt on Saturday, heavy again in the OH River Valley area Sunday. The 6-10 day
forecast looks dry today with a better precip chance in the 11-15 day. Temps will be bottoming out in the 6-10 day, recovering to normal for the 11-15.

Argentine rains fell north yesterday and remain there over the next five days, moving down into the heart of the belt for the 6-10 day, slowing fieldwork and harvest a bit next week. Brazil did see some rains in the south yesterday but action remains mostly confined to the fringe crop areas over the next ten days, leaving increasing stress on the bulk of the safrinha corn belt.

Have a great day!


Wayne Kollis - Mike Rosenberg - Matt Zeman - Austin Behrendsen - Deric Den Hartog