Grain Comments   12-01-2022

Good Morning:

The soy complex dominated overnight grain trade volume but beans fell fairly consistently fell from highs into the morning hours, after a two-plus month high for SF3 yesterday. That’s despite commodity tailwinds today; the bulls need to see improved soy export sales week-over-week.

The U.S. House of Representatives yesterday passed a bill to avert a coming rail strike, at least coming to terms of a tentative deal, and passing a bill to add seven days of sick leave to the contract as well; both bills now head to the Senate. Rail workers are vowing to strike by Dec 9 if no deal is reached.

This afternoon’s USDA October soybean crush is seen at 195.9 million bushels, up from 167.6 mbu in September but below 196.9 mbu last October (and slightly behind Oct 2020 as well). Estimates range from 194.0-197.1 mbu.

The U.S. forecast looks varied precipitation-wise throughout the next two weeks, mostly dry, with the best precipitation chances holding out to the southeast over the next ten days and the far northwest for the 11-15 day time frame. Temperatures will trend to the low side of normal up into mid-Dec.

Argentina did see some decent rains center-east over the past 24 hours, with chances best north today and east for the 6-10 day, but hot and dry weather will remain the norm there going forward. Brazil saw some light and scattered rains yesterday but chances look strong and widespread through Monday; 6- 10 day maps turn back to a dry west/wet east pattern for crop areas there.

Have a great day!


MORNING TRIVIA:   The United States has held only one military draft lottery in the last 80 years; it happened on this day of what year?

Answer on the Cash Bid page.

Wayne Kollis - Matt Zeman - Austin Behrendsen - Deric Den Hartog