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 Grain Comments   10-22-2021

 

Good Morning:

The grain markets are rebounding from sharp losses on Thursday as the recent choppy trend continues. Wheat futures are leading the grains higher on tightening world supplies. Ongoing wet weather in the eastern Midwest is seen as supportive, as well as the ongoing rally in the energy markets. Crude oil is up 1%, the equities markets are mixed to higher, and the US dollar index is slightly weaker.

The 5-day weather outlook continues to trend wetter for the heart of the Midwest. Rainfall totals of 3” to 4” are possible along the IA / MO border and pushing across central IL and into western IN. The rains are expected to begin in the west on Sunday with numerous rain chances into the middle of next week. In Argentina, below normal rainfall is expected over the next 10 days with just 25% of the country receiving .75” or more.

Brazilian Mosaic executive encouraging farmers to not delay making fertilizer purchases to ensure delivery for Brazil’s winter crops. About 40% of the fertilizers expected to be used in Brazil’s winter crops, especially corn and cotton, haven’t been bought yet, while coffee farmers haven’t bought about 30% of the nutrients that should be applied by the end of the year.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimating 2021-22 corn seeding 26.3% complete vs 23.2% in the previous week.

NOAA’s winter outlook shows the Southwest drought to continue or worsen this winter. NOAA, however, expects the drought to lessen in the U.S. Pacific Northwest, upper Midwest, and northern California amid an emerging La Nina phenomenon.

China Evergrande set to avert default as property developer reportedly pays off bond interest.

Russia’s wheat export tax increased to $67 per MT, up $5.70. Cron export tax set at $49.70 per MT, up $1.3 MT.

Have a great day!


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