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 Grain Comments   08-05-2022

Good Morning:

Extended weather forecasts have been stubbornly hot and dry all summer and we’re reaching the point where any major shifts will be too little, too late. However, scattered chances remain for at least various parts of the belt almost daily at this point, and last year taught us that crops can survive (and even thrive) on minimal, just-in-time rains. 

High volatility was seen in the market this week and that is unlikely to subside next week, especially with the monthly WASDE report set to be released one week from today. Several traders are expecting to see slight reductions to US corn and soybean yields. Corn yield is estimated at 174 bushels per acre by some analyst which would remove 245 million bu from balance sheets. While sizable, some are also forecasting a one bushel reduction to the US soybean yield. This would remove 87.5 million bu from the US soybean supply and put us deep into a rationing situation. Demand estimates are more mixed with some increasing and some decreasing. This will likely increase positioning ahead of the reports. Weather will again be a major factor to start next week’s trade as forecasts are currently calling for heat to return to the Corn Belt again next week. Last Friday we had the same outlooks, but temperatures were not as high, and trade was heavily pressured to start this week. It is not out of the question we could see the same this weekend. Ukraine developments on the export front and the outside markets will also remain factors in trade next week. Before long we will start to see harvest in the US, and when we do, fundamental interest will shift more towards demand.

Rains held to the far southeastern corn belt over the past 24 hours, with an isolated shower on the SD/NE line as well; coverage still looks decent over the next five days, including good rains on tap for SD/MN/WI and again in the southern and southeastern Midwest. Extended maps also have rain chances pushed out to the southeastern belt with the bulk of the Plains and Midwest remaining dry for the 6-10 and 11-15 day time frames. Temperatures will be extreme for a couple more days but hold safely above-normal over the next two weeks, through mid-August, with no relief in sight there.

Have a great day!

MORNING TRIVIA: This unit of speed is equivalent to 1.15 miles per hour...

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Wayne Kollis - Matt Zeman - Austin Behrendsen - Deric Den Hartog

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