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 Grain Comments   09-27-2021

 

Good Morning:

The grain markets are mixed to weaker this morning following an active harvest weekend. Yield reports remain variable but corn and bean yields in the WCB are coming in surprisingly high considering the dry conditions. The trade is anxiously awaiting Thursday’s release of the quarterly grain stocks. The outside markets are mixed although crude oil futures are sharply higher and making new highs for the move.

This will be a big week in Washington as the $1 trillion infrastructure bill is expected to be voted on in the House. The Senate has already passed the measure. The $3.5 trillion reconciliation bill is also on the table. At the same time, the government’s funding is set to expire at 12:01 a.m. on Friday, Oct. 1, which would partially shut down the government if Congress doesn’t act. Lawmakers are also feuding over who is responsible for raising the debt limit and avoiding a potentially catastrophic default.

The US Midwest weather forecast remains mostly warm and dry over the next two weeks as a ridge of high pressure sits over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. A rain event will move across the Southern and Central Plains and into the southern Midwest later this week, producing the best rain event for the Central Plains in months.

Rainfall chances are improving for across the mid-section of Brazil with regular rain chances seen for Mato Grosso by early October.

The average trade estimate for Thursday’s Quarterly Stocks report pegs corn stocks at 1.15 BB, a 766 MB reduction from last year. Soybean stocks are seen at 174 MB, down 351 MB from last year. Wheat stocks are seen at 1.86 BB, down 303 MB from last year.

Friday’s COT showed the funds are short 5,491 contracts of wheat, down 514 lots; long 214,350 contracts of corn, up 2,121 lots; and long 49,701 contracts of soybeans, down 5,679 contracts. In soy products, the funds were long 38,980 contracts of soyoil, down 8,114 lots and short 18,553 contracts of meal, up 2,221 contracts.

Have a great day!


Wayne Kollis - Mike Rosenberg - Matt Zeman - Austin Behrendsen - Deric Den Hartog

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