Grain Comments   11-29-2022

Good Morning:

Soybeans are following through on yesterday’s bullish reversal, hitting a 3+ week high late-night and nearing a 2+ month top as near-term concerns linger over ARG (and overall SA) abilities to fill China’s needs.

Snow is falling from NE up through MN this morning, with rains expected in the southeast and east today as well; action will be more scattered up into the weekend, but extended maps remain wet overall. Temps will be turning colder going forward as well, mostly below-normal up into mid-December.

Argentina was dry yesterday, with some northern chances today and tomorrow before resuming a drier path ahead; Brazilian rains remain heaviest in the northeast this week, driest west and south but improving next week also.

Demand remains a primary factor in price discovery, especially from the world’s leading importer China. It was recently reported that China would relax some of its Covid restrictions, but since this was announced, China has seen record Covid cases reported. As a result, it is now thought China will tighten Covid lockdowns which has caused civil unrest in the country. As a result, Chinese commodity demand is now more uncertain than before. This uncertainty has spilled into China’s economic outlook and caused further unrest in the country. Trade is also monitoring talks between the US rail lines and unions with the strike deadline quickly approaching. The current deadline is December 9th, but some believe work stoppages could come sooner. The White House is working to at least extend this deadline, but so far little progress has been made. Given the ongoing issues with US river movement any disruption to rail movement would further reduce the amount of product the US can get into the global market. Additional pressure for the US is coming from Argentina where another incentive program has been announced to instigate soybean sales. This will generate more pressure for the US ahead of the upcoming Brazilian harvest and likely end the bulk of our soybean sales for the marketing year.

Have a great day!


MORNING TRIVIA:   Within 100 feet either way, what is the largest recorded wave? (measured post-earthquake in Alaska in 1958)…

Answer on the Cash Bid page.

Wayne Kollis - Matt Zeman - Austin Behrendsen - Deric Den Hartog