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CFE Grain Comments

6/19/2018

Good Morning!

President Trump has requested the United States Trade Representative to identify $200 billion worth of Chinese goods for additional tariffs at a rate of 10 percent. The duties would take effect "if China refuses to change its practices, and also if it insists on going forward with the new tariffs that it has recently announced. China's Foreign Ministry, meanwhile, said the country does not want a trade war, but it's not afraid to engage in one.

The grain markets are sharply lower once again as Trump warns of additional trade tariffs if China does not back down. The lack of a US weather story creates very little incentive for the bulls to stand in front of this fast moving freight train. For now, the current grain fundamentals have been pushed aside while traders focus on the ongoing dispute.

World equities are lower across the board with the Shanghai Index seeing the largest loss, down nearly 4%. Dow futures are down 335 points, losing roughly 1.4% of its value. The US dollar index is sharply higher, rallying to a 1-year high on inflationary fears due to the tightening US monetary policy as well as the building trade war. The stronger dollar is weighing on crude oil, down roughly $1.10; precious metals are also weaker.

The national corn crop rating rose a point this week (against trade estimates for a equally-sized decline) to 78% good/excellent, up from 67% last year and the 71% five-year average; emergence of the crop went from 94% to 98% this week, up from 97% both last year and on average. Soybean ratings dropped a point to 73% g/ex, still up from 67% LY and the 70% 5YA, with soybean planting and emergence also above their comparable numbers last year at 97% and 90%, respectively. Winter wheat heading and harvesting came in roughly in line with LY at 95% and 27%, respectively, with the rating of the crop rising by another point this week to 39% g/ex (still below 49% LY and the 42% 5YA). Spring wheat heading hit 97% with the initial emergence report at 9% (below 14% LY and the 12% 5YA) with ratings of that crop spiking to 78% g/ex, up from 70% LW, 41% LY, and the 65% five-year average.

Have a great day and be safe!

This Marketing Information provided by

Wayne Kollis - Melissa Peters - Mike Rosenberg - Matt Zeman - Austin Behrendsen
 

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CORN
Last High Low Change Last Updated  
Jul '18 3.5375 3.5475 3.5275 0.0000 6/19/18 10:06 PM
Sep '18 3.6325 3.6425 3.6225 0.0000 6/19/18 10:06 PM
Dec '18 3.7525 3.7650 3.7425 -0.0025 6/19/18 10:06 PM
Mar '19 3.8475 3.8575 3.8400 -0.0025 6/19/18 10:06 PM
May '19 3.9125 3.9225 3.9050 -0.0025 6/19/18 10:06 PM
SOYBEANS
Last High Low Change Last Updated  
Jul '18 8.9025 8.9525 8.8400 0.0125 6/19/18 10:06 PM
Aug '18 8.9575 9.0050 8.8925 0.0150 6/19/18 10:06 PM
Sep '18 9.0125 9.0600 8.9525 0.0100 6/19/18 10:06 PM
Nov '18 9.1200 9.1700 9.0625 0.0100 6/19/18 10:06 PM
Jan '19 9.2075 9.2600 9.1575 0.0050 6/19/18 10:06 PM
SOYBEAN MEAL
Last High Low Change Last Updated  
Jul '18 334.5 335.3 333.4 0.0 6/19/18 10:05 PM
Aug '18 336.3 337.1 335.3 0.0 6/19/18 10:05 PM
Sep '18 337.7 338.7 337.2 -0.4 6/19/18 10:05 PM
Oct '18 338.5 339.8 338.0 -0.5 6/19/18 10:05 PM
Dec '18 340.1 341.0 339.1 -0.2 6/19/18 10:05 PM
LEAN HOGS
Last High Low Change Last Updated  
Jul '18 81.875 82.925 81.500 -1.850 6/19/18 4:10 PM
Aug '18 77.725 78.575 76.875 -1.700 6/19/18 4:10 PM
Oct '18 63.175 64.075 62.425 -1.750 6/19/18 4:10 PM
FEEDER CATTLE
Last High Low Change Last Updated  
Aug '18 149.625 149.925 146.950 0.650 6/19/18 3:26 PM
Sep '18 149.900 150.075 147.250 0.775 6/19/18 4:09 PM
Oct '18 149.400 149.650 146.900 0.775 6/19/18 4:09 PM
LIVE CATTLE
Last High Low Change Last Updated  
Jun '18 108.525 109.150 106.725 0.225 6/19/18 3:26 PM
Aug '18 106.425 106.650 103.300 1.250 6/19/18 2:54 PM
Oct '18 108.500 108.825 105.700 0.925 6/19/18 4:10 PM
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