Grain Comments: 04-22-2026

Good morning.

Follow through buying has been the main feature in the overnight markets to get Wednesday trade started in Chicago, with bean oil scoring another round of new contract highs and pulling the rest of the space higher with it on an extension of the ceasefire in the Middle East by President Trump. Other news of note this morning is generally lacking, with there little new in terms of planting progress or weather which remain the other main areas of focus outside of Iran. Corn futures this morning are trading 2-3 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 3-6 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading on either side of unchanged.

This morning’s weekly ethanol update from the EIA is expected to show average daily production in the US in the week ending April 17th between 1.090-1.122 mil bbls, while stocks in the week are seen between 26.5-26.9 mil bbls.

Sources familiar with the matter are reporting this morning that a council of congressional lawmakers is set today to file legislation that would allow for year-round sales of E15, though it is unclear at this writing what the likelihood that the bill actually passes might be.

Port sources in Argentina said at least 10 vessels were delayed in loading grains at Argentina’s Quequen Port on Tuesday as truckers demanding higher freight rates blocked access to terminals. “No trucks are entering with grain, we are completely paralyzed,” said the source. Ports in the Rosario area, which account for around 85% of Argentina’s annual exports, are said to be operating normally.

The President of a French farmer group this week said soaring fuel and fertilizer costs spurred by the war in Iran are likely to cause a reduction in planted area for grains this year; corn seeding is expected to be down some 15% or so from last year to just 1.33 mil hectares, which would also be around 7% below the current five-year average.

In a statement released Wednesday, Russia’s government said export quotas for certain fertilizers would be extended until the end of November in an effort to further protect domestic markets ahead of the spring planting campaign; the total quota is now expected to total more than 20 MMTs.

Today’s weather across the Midwest will likely be generally similar to what was seen on Tuesday, as rain remains mostly absent until the larger low-pressure system works across the area Thursday into Friday and temperatures continue to stay seasonally warm. Models this morning have a half inch to an inch or so of rainfall possible for a band in the western Corn Belt generally west of the Mississippi, stretching from eastern KS to the MN/WI line.

Extended forecasts this morning are wetter through the central Corn Belt than was seen yesterday from a precipitation anomaly standpoint, but the active flow pattern is keeping our confidence in any forecast beyond the next 5-7 days relatively low.

Have a great day.