Good morning.
Welcome to data day in the ag world. Conab will be out first this morning with their initial estimates for the 2024/25 season, while USDA will follow later in the morning. Following less than ideal weather in Brazil during the 2023/24 season, starting estimates of the corn and soybean crops are expected to show rather sizeable yearly gains. However, the trade has mostly been aware of this for weeks now and is more concerned over the current weather pattern in the country which has been on the dry side through their winter months. As of a week ago today, Brazil had planted just 15% of its first corn crop – a number that is slightly behind last year’s pace as producers wait for moisture. Corn futures this morning are trading 3-4 cents higher, soybean futures are up 6-7 cents, and the Chicago wheat market is up 9-10 cents. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up $3-4/ton, and soybean is down 5-10 points. Outside markets are higher, crude oil futures are up $1-1.10/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 60 points, and the US$ index is up 5 points. The S&P500 is up 10 points, and the NASDAQ is up 15 points.
This morning’s weekly export sales report for the week ending September 5th is expected to show 2024/25 corn sales in a range of 700k-1.6 mil mt’s, soybean sales in a range of 900k-1.6 mil mt’s, and wheat sales in a range of 300k-550k mt’s. Old crop corn sales are estimated between (50k)-50k mt’s, and old crop soybean sales are seen between (100k)-0 mt’s.
On average, both the new crop corn and soybean sales would be down from last week, while the wheat estimate on average would be slightly up from last week.
Yesterday’s weekly EIA energy report showed crude oil stocks in the week ending September 6th at 419.143 mil bbls, which was up 0.833 mil bbls on the week. Gasoline stocks were up 2.31 mil bbls at 221.552 mil, and distillate stocks were up 2.308 mil bbls at 125.023 mil. Implied gasoline demand was estimated at 8.478 mil bpd vs 8.938 mil last week and 8.307 mil last year.
In Argentina, the Rosario Grains Exchange reported that 30% of the country’s winter wheat crop is in poor to fair condition, which could spur downward adjustments from the 20.5 mmt’s currently predicted. Same group sees Argy corn production in 2024/25 at 51-52 mmt’s, with soybean production estimated at 52-53 mmt’s.
Canada on Wednesday announced it would be seeking feedback and opinions on surtaxes on additional Chinese goods such as minerals, batteries and semiconductors in an effort to protect its workers and investments from China’s unfair trade practices, according to sources. The move comes following announced tariffs on EV and steel/aluminum imports last month.
Officials in Russia’s Kursk region stated on Wednesday that grain harvest on roughly 160,000 hectares of land would be abandoned due to Russian forces being engaged in counter-offensive operations in the region.
According to Ukraine’s ag ministry, grain exports in the season that began July 1 have reached 8.2 mmt’s, which is more than double exports in the same period last year. Wheat exports account for most of this increase and are up nearly 70% from last year.
China’s ag ministry announced soybean imports in the 2023/24 season that runs through September would likely reach 102 mmt’s, up 3.92 mmt’s from their estimate last month. 2023/24 cotton imports were also revised higher by roughly 200k mt’s. No adjustments were made to 2024/25 estimates for either corn or soybeans.
In the financial world on Thursday, traders will be tuned in to a policy decision from the European Central Bank, where all 68 economists polled in a survey see a 25-basis point reduction as the nearly guaranteed outcome; this would drop the EU’s lending rate to 3.5%.
In China, benchmark stock indices fell to their lowest levels since 2019 overnight as confidence in the country’s economy continues to dwindle. Exasperating the problem is a crackdown by authorities on investment bankers, with at least three having been detained in the past month.
Hurricane Francine made landfall near Morgan City, Louisiana Wednesday evening as a category 2 hurricane with sustained winds near 100mph. The system has now weakened back to a tropical storm as of this morning, but officials urge continued caution as strong winds and rainfall, as well as tornadoes are still possible through today and tomorrow.
Satellite data shows heaviest rainfall totals of just under 8″ over the last 24 hours in a small area near the Louisiana coast as of 6am central time this morning. Through the rest of today and tomorrow, models see an additional 2-3″ possible for the area, with an additional 4-6″ being forecast further east into Georgia.
Otherwise, the rest of the Midwest looks to stay mostly dry through the weekend; the EU has come into better agreement with the GFS on rains in the Dakota’s/Nebraska into Sunday/Monday but stays mostly dry for the rest of the Corn Belt.
The two models are in poor agreement on moisture amounts for the southern Midwest through the weekend, with the EU seeing Francine provide moisture further norther and west than what the GFS is seeing.
Week-two forecasts continue to fluctuate but remain in mostly good agreement on a drier bias through the Mississippi and Ohio River valleys, while the northern/central parts of the country, as well as the southeast coastal areas, stay on the wet side.
Temps into the weekend look to continue to be a mixed bag, with ridging in the northern/central part of the country providing heat to the mid-section, while troughs in the northwest and the southeast keep these areas cooler. Highs regularly stay in the mid/upper 80’s through most of the Corn Belt into the middle of next week.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 09-12-2024
Good morning.
Welcome to data day in the ag world. Conab will be out first this morning with their initial estimates for the 2024/25 season, while USDA will follow later in the morning. Following less than ideal weather in Brazil during the 2023/24 season, starting estimates of the corn and soybean crops are expected to show rather sizeable yearly gains. However, the trade has mostly been aware of this for weeks now and is more concerned over the current weather pattern in the country which has been on the dry side through their winter months. As of a week ago today, Brazil had planted just 15% of its first corn crop – a number that is slightly behind last year’s pace as producers wait for moisture. Corn futures this morning are trading 3-4 cents higher, soybean futures are up 6-7 cents, and the Chicago wheat market is up 9-10 cents. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up $3-4/ton, and soybean is down 5-10 points. Outside markets are higher, crude oil futures are up $1-1.10/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 60 points, and the US$ index is up 5 points. The S&P500 is up 10 points, and the NASDAQ is up 15 points.
This morning’s weekly export sales report for the week ending September 5th is expected to show 2024/25 corn sales in a range of 700k-1.6 mil mt’s, soybean sales in a range of 900k-1.6 mil mt’s, and wheat sales in a range of 300k-550k mt’s. Old crop corn sales are estimated between (50k)-50k mt’s, and old crop soybean sales are seen between (100k)-0 mt’s.
On average, both the new crop corn and soybean sales would be down from last week, while the wheat estimate on average would be slightly up from last week.
Yesterday’s weekly EIA energy report showed crude oil stocks in the week ending September 6th at 419.143 mil bbls, which was up 0.833 mil bbls on the week. Gasoline stocks were up 2.31 mil bbls at 221.552 mil, and distillate stocks were up 2.308 mil bbls at 125.023 mil. Implied gasoline demand was estimated at 8.478 mil bpd vs 8.938 mil last week and 8.307 mil last year.
In Argentina, the Rosario Grains Exchange reported that 30% of the country’s winter wheat crop is in poor to fair condition, which could spur downward adjustments from the 20.5 mmt’s currently predicted. Same group sees Argy corn production in 2024/25 at 51-52 mmt’s, with soybean production estimated at 52-53 mmt’s.
Canada on Wednesday announced it would be seeking feedback and opinions on surtaxes on additional Chinese goods such as minerals, batteries and semiconductors in an effort to protect its workers and investments from China’s unfair trade practices, according to sources. The move comes following announced tariffs on EV and steel/aluminum imports last month.
Officials in Russia’s Kursk region stated on Wednesday that grain harvest on roughly 160,000 hectares of land would be abandoned due to Russian forces being engaged in counter-offensive operations in the region.
According to Ukraine’s ag ministry, grain exports in the season that began July 1 have reached 8.2 mmt’s, which is more than double exports in the same period last year. Wheat exports account for most of this increase and are up nearly 70% from last year.
China’s ag ministry announced soybean imports in the 2023/24 season that runs through September would likely reach 102 mmt’s, up 3.92 mmt’s from their estimate last month. 2023/24 cotton imports were also revised higher by roughly 200k mt’s. No adjustments were made to 2024/25 estimates for either corn or soybeans.
In the financial world on Thursday, traders will be tuned in to a policy decision from the European Central Bank, where all 68 economists polled in a survey see a 25-basis point reduction as the nearly guaranteed outcome; this would drop the EU’s lending rate to 3.5%.
In China, benchmark stock indices fell to their lowest levels since 2019 overnight as confidence in the country’s economy continues to dwindle. Exasperating the problem is a crackdown by authorities on investment bankers, with at least three having been detained in the past month.
Hurricane Francine made landfall near Morgan City, Louisiana Wednesday evening as a category 2 hurricane with sustained winds near 100mph. The system has now weakened back to a tropical storm as of this morning, but officials urge continued caution as strong winds and rainfall, as well as tornadoes are still possible through today and tomorrow.
Satellite data shows heaviest rainfall totals of just under 8″ over the last 24 hours in a small area near the Louisiana coast as of 6am central time this morning. Through the rest of today and tomorrow, models see an additional 2-3″ possible for the area, with an additional 4-6″ being forecast further east into Georgia.
Otherwise, the rest of the Midwest looks to stay mostly dry through the weekend; the EU has come into better agreement with the GFS on rains in the Dakota’s/Nebraska into Sunday/Monday but stays mostly dry for the rest of the Corn Belt.
The two models are in poor agreement on moisture amounts for the southern Midwest through the weekend, with the EU seeing Francine provide moisture further norther and west than what the GFS is seeing.
Week-two forecasts continue to fluctuate but remain in mostly good agreement on a drier bias through the Mississippi and Ohio River valleys, while the northern/central parts of the country, as well as the southeast coastal areas, stay on the wet side.
Temps into the weekend look to continue to be a mixed bag, with ridging in the northern/central part of the country providing heat to the mid-section, while troughs in the northwest and the southeast keep these areas cooler. Highs regularly stay in the mid/upper 80’s through most of the Corn Belt into the middle of next week.
Have a great day.
View All News >