Good morning.
Ag markets at the CBOT are quietly higher to start Tuesday, with soybeans in the green after having traded some 5-7 cents lower too start the session on last night’s reopen. Holding above the 50-day moving average, which is at 10.12 this morning, for the remainder of the week will be goal number 1 for the bull camp. Otherwise, position squaring ahead of next Monday’s quarterly stocks and small grains report will be the dominant feature of the trade for the remainder of the week. On the farmer side, hedge selling is still expected going into the weekend, but Midwest rains since Sunday have caused a bit of a slowdown in the number of new bushels coming out of the field, especially in the eastern/southern areas of the Corn Belt. Corn futures this morning are trading unchanged to a penny higher, soybean futures are up 5-6 cents, and the Chicago wheat market is also unchanged to a penny higher. Products are higher, soybean meal is up $2-3/ton, and soybean oil is up 40-50 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are up $1.60-1.70/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 40 points, and the US$ index is down 5 points. The S&P500 is up 5 points, and the NASDAQ is up 20 points. Copper is sharply higher while gold futures made new contract highs again overnight.
Monday afternoon’s crop progress report showed unchanged conditions in the g/ex category for both corn and soybeans as of Sunday September 22nd. Corn harvest was estimated at 14% complete, while soybean harvest was seen at 13% complete.
The corn harvest estimate was above the five-year average of 11% but was 3% behind the average trade guess. At the state level, Illinois was seen 14% complete compared to 7% avg, Indiana was seen 12% complete compared to 6% avg, and Iowa was seen 5% complete compared to 5% avg.
Soybean harvest at 13% complete matched trade expectations and was 5% ahead of the five-year average. Illinois was seen at 15% complete compared to 3% avg, Indiana was seen 16% complete compared to 5% avg, and Iowa was seen 9% complete compared to 7% avg.
Corn dented reached 92% compared to 91% on avg, while the amount of crop in maturity reached 61% compared to 55% on avg. In soybeans, the amount of the crop dropping leaves reached 65% compared to 57% on avg.
Spring wheat harvest reached 96% complete compared to the 5-year avg of 95%. Winter wheat seeding advanced 11% to 25% complete, while emergence on winter wheat came in at 4% in its first update of the season.
Brazil soy industry group Abiove said in a statement on Monday that they see the country’s crush capacity increasing to 72.3 mil tons in the coming season, up nearly 4.5% from last year. The group says there are now 67 soy-crushing companies, up from 63 last year, while the number of crush plants increased by 6.6% this year to 113.
The Grain Growers of Canada said in a statement on Monday that an impending port strike in Vancouver would potentially impact some 100,000 mt’s of crop deliveries per day and would have a “devastating impact” on Canadian farmers. The Vancouver port handles more than half of all grain produced in Canada.
The USDA’s chicken and eggs report, released Monday afternoon, showed US egg production in the month of August at 9.08 bil, which was down nearly 3% from same month last year but up 0.4% from July.
China’s central bank announced a plethora of monetary stimulus measures overnight, which caused the main stock indexes in the country to rally nearly 4% at one point. Officials cut a key interest rate and announced plans to reduce the amount of money banks were required to have in reserves in order to boost lending.
The China news looks to be most of the talk around the equity markets on Tuesday, as the day’s data slate is otherwise mostly empty. Fed speakers yesterday opened the door for more rate cuts in the future, but continued to beat the drum that incoming data will help determine future decisions.
Rains continued to fall across the Midwest Monday night into Tuesday; 24-hour satellite data as of 6am central time this morning shows totals of 1-2.5″ through parts of MO/southern IL/southern IN, while areas further east of here picked up a lesser 0.01-0.5″.
Low pressure will continue to keep areas east of the Mississippi River in a stormy pattern through the rest of the day today and into tomorrow, before the currently named ‘Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine’ makes landfall across the Florida panhandle Thursday/Friday.
The GFS model, which was the more accurate in predicting Francine’s rainfall, sees the two systems combining to produce anywhere from 1-5″ of moisture by 1am central time Monday morning from FL all the way up to southeast MO/southern IL. The National Hurricane Center’s forecast cone, however, has the storm’s path further east today than was seen yesterday.
Week-two forecasts continue to see mostly dry conditions through a broad area in the mid-section of the country, while low pressure and tropical systems in the Gulf keep the east coast and possibly the eastern quarter of the US in a wetter bias.
The previously mentioned low pressure systems keep temps in the southern/eastern part of the country more seasonal, while ridging across the Canadian Prairies allows a return of warmth to the northcentral part of the country. Heat will most impact western areas of the Dakotas and eastern MT/WY.
24-hour satellite data as of noon yesterday showed minimal rainfall in South America; areas of Uruguay/far southern Brazil/far northern Argentina continue to be just about the only growing regions that have been receiving moisture; and forecasts for the next week continue to favor these areas, while dryness remains elsewhere.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 09-24-2024
Good morning.
Ag markets at the CBOT are quietly higher to start Tuesday, with soybeans in the green after having traded some 5-7 cents lower too start the session on last night’s reopen. Holding above the 50-day moving average, which is at 10.12 this morning, for the remainder of the week will be goal number 1 for the bull camp. Otherwise, position squaring ahead of next Monday’s quarterly stocks and small grains report will be the dominant feature of the trade for the remainder of the week. On the farmer side, hedge selling is still expected going into the weekend, but Midwest rains since Sunday have caused a bit of a slowdown in the number of new bushels coming out of the field, especially in the eastern/southern areas of the Corn Belt. Corn futures this morning are trading unchanged to a penny higher, soybean futures are up 5-6 cents, and the Chicago wheat market is also unchanged to a penny higher. Products are higher, soybean meal is up $2-3/ton, and soybean oil is up 40-50 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are up $1.60-1.70/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 40 points, and the US$ index is down 5 points. The S&P500 is up 5 points, and the NASDAQ is up 20 points. Copper is sharply higher while gold futures made new contract highs again overnight.
Monday afternoon’s crop progress report showed unchanged conditions in the g/ex category for both corn and soybeans as of Sunday September 22nd. Corn harvest was estimated at 14% complete, while soybean harvest was seen at 13% complete.
The corn harvest estimate was above the five-year average of 11% but was 3% behind the average trade guess. At the state level, Illinois was seen 14% complete compared to 7% avg, Indiana was seen 12% complete compared to 6% avg, and Iowa was seen 5% complete compared to 5% avg.
Soybean harvest at 13% complete matched trade expectations and was 5% ahead of the five-year average. Illinois was seen at 15% complete compared to 3% avg, Indiana was seen 16% complete compared to 5% avg, and Iowa was seen 9% complete compared to 7% avg.
Corn dented reached 92% compared to 91% on avg, while the amount of crop in maturity reached 61% compared to 55% on avg. In soybeans, the amount of the crop dropping leaves reached 65% compared to 57% on avg.
Spring wheat harvest reached 96% complete compared to the 5-year avg of 95%. Winter wheat seeding advanced 11% to 25% complete, while emergence on winter wheat came in at 4% in its first update of the season.
Brazil soy industry group Abiove said in a statement on Monday that they see the country’s crush capacity increasing to 72.3 mil tons in the coming season, up nearly 4.5% from last year. The group says there are now 67 soy-crushing companies, up from 63 last year, while the number of crush plants increased by 6.6% this year to 113.
The Grain Growers of Canada said in a statement on Monday that an impending port strike in Vancouver would potentially impact some 100,000 mt’s of crop deliveries per day and would have a “devastating impact” on Canadian farmers. The Vancouver port handles more than half of all grain produced in Canada.
The USDA’s chicken and eggs report, released Monday afternoon, showed US egg production in the month of August at 9.08 bil, which was down nearly 3% from same month last year but up 0.4% from July.
China’s central bank announced a plethora of monetary stimulus measures overnight, which caused the main stock indexes in the country to rally nearly 4% at one point. Officials cut a key interest rate and announced plans to reduce the amount of money banks were required to have in reserves in order to boost lending.
The China news looks to be most of the talk around the equity markets on Tuesday, as the day’s data slate is otherwise mostly empty. Fed speakers yesterday opened the door for more rate cuts in the future, but continued to beat the drum that incoming data will help determine future decisions.
Rains continued to fall across the Midwest Monday night into Tuesday; 24-hour satellite data as of 6am central time this morning shows totals of 1-2.5″ through parts of MO/southern IL/southern IN, while areas further east of here picked up a lesser 0.01-0.5″.
Low pressure will continue to keep areas east of the Mississippi River in a stormy pattern through the rest of the day today and into tomorrow, before the currently named ‘Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine’ makes landfall across the Florida panhandle Thursday/Friday.
The GFS model, which was the more accurate in predicting Francine’s rainfall, sees the two systems combining to produce anywhere from 1-5″ of moisture by 1am central time Monday morning from FL all the way up to southeast MO/southern IL. The National Hurricane Center’s forecast cone, however, has the storm’s path further east today than was seen yesterday.
Week-two forecasts continue to see mostly dry conditions through a broad area in the mid-section of the country, while low pressure and tropical systems in the Gulf keep the east coast and possibly the eastern quarter of the US in a wetter bias.
The previously mentioned low pressure systems keep temps in the southern/eastern part of the country more seasonal, while ridging across the Canadian Prairies allows a return of warmth to the northcentral part of the country. Heat will most impact western areas of the Dakotas and eastern MT/WY.
24-hour satellite data as of noon yesterday showed minimal rainfall in South America; areas of Uruguay/far southern Brazil/far northern Argentina continue to be just about the only growing regions that have been receiving moisture; and forecasts for the next week continue to favor these areas, while dryness remains elsewhere.
Have a great day.
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