Good morning.
Markets are again mixed in the overnight trading session to start Tuesday, with the feed grains unchanged/higher, and the soy complex modestly lower. Bean oil appears to be the anchor this morning, likely trading lower on the announcement of a potential new EPA chief by President-elect Trump yesterday afternoon. As we mentioned last week, political spillover will likely have a rather outsized impact on ag-market pricing into the end of the year. Yesterday’s wheat market sell-off was presumed to be the result of ideas/rumors that Trump and Russian President Putin have spoken since the election and that this might lead to an end of the conflict in Ukraine, further illustrating this point. Corn futures this morning are trading unchanged to a penny higher, soybean futures are trading 5-7 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is also unchanged to a penny higher. Products are lower, soybean meal is down around 50 cents/ton, and soybean oil is down 120 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are up 50-60 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 50 points, and the US$ index is up 30 points. The S&P500 is down 5 points, and the NASDAQ is down 20 points. Gold is down another $10/oz.
Newswires Monday afternoon reported that President-elect Trump had nominated Lee Zeldin to be his EPA Administrator, though he must be confirmed by the US Senate before becoming official.
In 2017, Zeldin co-sponsored a bill that would have repealed the Renewable Fuel Standard, and in 2018, Zeldin co-signed a letter asking the EPA to keep blending requirements below 10%, claiming that higher blends such as E15 and E85 were “impractical and unnecessary.” Big question now is whether these views have changed over the last 5-7 years.
Other recently announced Trump appointments include Senator Marco Rubio as his secretary of state, and also Republican Representative Mike Waltz as his national security adviser; Kristi Noem is also being speculated as the new head of homeland security.
Data from Ukraine this morning shows ag exports in the month of October reaching 6 mmt’s, which was up nearly 30% from September. Planting progress of winter grains has also reached 96.3% as of Monday according to the ag ministry, compared to 91% as of November 14th last year.
The French ag ministry on Monday raised their estimate of the country’s corn crop to 14.6 mmt’s, up from 14.5 mmt’s last month. This would be roughly 10% above the five-year average despite a rain-soaked season that has caused problems all year. Harvest was estimated to have reached 58% as of last week, which remains well behind average.
Equity markets look to again be on the quiet side Tuesday data-wise, though will likely see more activity than Monday as bond markets re-open from the holiday. So called ‘Trump trades’ continue to dominate the landscape, with Bitcoin again scoring new all-time highs and volatility in the currency markets staying elevated.
Forecasts overnight trended marginally drier for the central/western parts of the Midwest, but still see further rainfall for the eastern Midwest and down into the Gulf for the rest of this week. Totals look to range from 0.1-1.5″ through Saturday morning for an area generally east of the Mississippi River, up to central MI, and then over to NC and VA.
Better rains are then seen further to the west early next week, with 1.5-2″ possible for parts of OK/KS/MO Monday/Tuesday. This system will also provide lighter rains to parts of NE/IA/MO/IL and other areas further north and west of the system seen the rest of this week.
Satellite data for Monday shows mostly dry conditions across the country besides the PNW, where rains of 0.05-1″ generally speaking fell in parts of CA/OR/WA.
Week-two forecasts have begun to see some fluctuation overnight, though could still be described as mostly wet into November 26th. The GFS ensemble trended drier in the south and southeast, while the EU ensemble trended drier up the east coast and into the northeast; the CPC is dryer in the west, and the EU AI output is drier in the PNW but is in agreement with the CPC on a wet bias in the east.
On the temp side, 10–15-day guidance continues to trend cooler, with now both the EU and the GFS models showing below average air temps through the whole of the country into the back third of November. Confidence is growing that the seasonally warm weather most of us have seen through Fall is on its way out over the next two weeks.
Satellite data for South America on Monday showed steady rains in northeast Argentina, while Brazil was actually on the drier side for most areas besides the far north and northeast. Totals in Argentina ranged from 0.01-1″, while Brazil saw similar totals generally with some local areas receiving slightly more.
Forecast wise, Argentina’s outlook continues to fluctuate as the week-two run is again slightly wetter with better coverage today than was seen yesterday. The outlook for Brazil remains unchanged and conducive to crop development. Our sources indicate there remains zero concern at this point over to much moisture due to deleted soil moisture levels at the start of October.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 11-12-2024
Good morning.
Markets are again mixed in the overnight trading session to start Tuesday, with the feed grains unchanged/higher, and the soy complex modestly lower. Bean oil appears to be the anchor this morning, likely trading lower on the announcement of a potential new EPA chief by President-elect Trump yesterday afternoon. As we mentioned last week, political spillover will likely have a rather outsized impact on ag-market pricing into the end of the year. Yesterday’s wheat market sell-off was presumed to be the result of ideas/rumors that Trump and Russian President Putin have spoken since the election and that this might lead to an end of the conflict in Ukraine, further illustrating this point. Corn futures this morning are trading unchanged to a penny higher, soybean futures are trading 5-7 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is also unchanged to a penny higher. Products are lower, soybean meal is down around 50 cents/ton, and soybean oil is down 120 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are up 50-60 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 50 points, and the US$ index is up 30 points. The S&P500 is down 5 points, and the NASDAQ is down 20 points. Gold is down another $10/oz.
Newswires Monday afternoon reported that President-elect Trump had nominated Lee Zeldin to be his EPA Administrator, though he must be confirmed by the US Senate before becoming official.
In 2017, Zeldin co-sponsored a bill that would have repealed the Renewable Fuel Standard, and in 2018, Zeldin co-signed a letter asking the EPA to keep blending requirements below 10%, claiming that higher blends such as E15 and E85 were “impractical and unnecessary.” Big question now is whether these views have changed over the last 5-7 years.
Other recently announced Trump appointments include Senator Marco Rubio as his secretary of state, and also Republican Representative Mike Waltz as his national security adviser; Kristi Noem is also being speculated as the new head of homeland security.
Data from Ukraine this morning shows ag exports in the month of October reaching 6 mmt’s, which was up nearly 30% from September. Planting progress of winter grains has also reached 96.3% as of Monday according to the ag ministry, compared to 91% as of November 14th last year.
The French ag ministry on Monday raised their estimate of the country’s corn crop to 14.6 mmt’s, up from 14.5 mmt’s last month. This would be roughly 10% above the five-year average despite a rain-soaked season that has caused problems all year. Harvest was estimated to have reached 58% as of last week, which remains well behind average.
Equity markets look to again be on the quiet side Tuesday data-wise, though will likely see more activity than Monday as bond markets re-open from the holiday. So called ‘Trump trades’ continue to dominate the landscape, with Bitcoin again scoring new all-time highs and volatility in the currency markets staying elevated.
Forecasts overnight trended marginally drier for the central/western parts of the Midwest, but still see further rainfall for the eastern Midwest and down into the Gulf for the rest of this week. Totals look to range from 0.1-1.5″ through Saturday morning for an area generally east of the Mississippi River, up to central MI, and then over to NC and VA.
Better rains are then seen further to the west early next week, with 1.5-2″ possible for parts of OK/KS/MO Monday/Tuesday. This system will also provide lighter rains to parts of NE/IA/MO/IL and other areas further north and west of the system seen the rest of this week.
Satellite data for Monday shows mostly dry conditions across the country besides the PNW, where rains of 0.05-1″ generally speaking fell in parts of CA/OR/WA.
Week-two forecasts have begun to see some fluctuation overnight, though could still be described as mostly wet into November 26th. The GFS ensemble trended drier in the south and southeast, while the EU ensemble trended drier up the east coast and into the northeast; the CPC is dryer in the west, and the EU AI output is drier in the PNW but is in agreement with the CPC on a wet bias in the east.
On the temp side, 10–15-day guidance continues to trend cooler, with now both the EU and the GFS models showing below average air temps through the whole of the country into the back third of November. Confidence is growing that the seasonally warm weather most of us have seen through Fall is on its way out over the next two weeks.
Satellite data for South America on Monday showed steady rains in northeast Argentina, while Brazil was actually on the drier side for most areas besides the far north and northeast. Totals in Argentina ranged from 0.01-1″, while Brazil saw similar totals generally with some local areas receiving slightly more.
Forecast wise, Argentina’s outlook continues to fluctuate as the week-two run is again slightly wetter with better coverage today than was seen yesterday. The outlook for Brazil remains unchanged and conducive to crop development. Our sources indicate there remains zero concern at this point over to much moisture due to deleted soil moisture levels at the start of October.
Have a great day.
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