Good morning.
Overnight ag trade has been quietly mixed for the most part to start Thursday, with most of the commodity market focus this morning seemingly on the outside markets amid what continues to be wait-and-see type action at the CBOT ahead of tomorrow’s monthly supply and demand update. Outside of China, El Niño, and the ongoing geopolitical situations, it’s been crop quality this week that has garnered a bulk of the daily trader, with farmers lamenting the impacts wet weather through September had on crops, especially in the west. There are more questions than answers at this point and the final impact won’t likely be known for months, but traders are betting today that the effects will be rather negative and that crop sizes are likely to work lower between now and January.
Corn futures to start Thursday morning are trading either side of unchanged, soybean futures are trading 3-5 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading unchanged to a penny higher.
This morning’s weekly export sales report, with data for the week ending October 1st, is expected to show corn sales in the week between 600k – 1.7 mil MTs, soybean sales between 450k – 1.2 mil MTs, and wheat sales between 200k-500k MTs.
Tomorrow’s October WASDE update, according to a Reuters survey of analysts, is expected to show corn yield coming in at an average of 177.7 bu/acre, which would put production at 15.721 bil bu; soybean yields are seen at 52.8 bu/acre, with production at 4.534 bil bu. Ending stocks for corn are estimated at 1.670 bil bu, soybeans at 305 mil bu, and wheat at 721 mil bu. At the world level, corn stocks are seen at 273.8 MMTs, soybean stocks are seen at 123.33 MMTs, and wheat stocks are seen at 276.6 MMTs.
The Federal Trade Commission, along with the USDA, launched an investigation this week into farm equipment market practices, including potential anticompetitive conduct, following farmer complaints regarding barriers to equipment purchases and obtaining repair services. The probe is said to focus on whether farmers face inflated equipment prices and unnecessary restrictions on keeping machinery operating.
Lithuania’s Prime Minister said this week that his country was pushing for an EU ban on Russian grain transit through its ports, joining other Baltic states in voicing concern over the situation. “This is an unacceptable situation,” said the Prime Minister. He also added that he had been in regular contact with Latvia and that their positions were aligned.
Private Black Sea analyst SovEcon this week dropped Russia’s 2026/27 wheat production forecast a little less than 1% from their previous estimate to 87.5 MMTs and also raised their production estimate for Ukraine a little less than 2% to 33.4 MMTs on strong early yields. The group cited lower production forecasts for parts of Siberia and the Central Federal District.
The National Hurricane Center has continued to fine-tune the path of Isaias, which has strengthened into a hurricane since yesterday. This morning’s 4am update has the storm making landfall around 1am Friday night/Saturday morning and then working its way almost due north through the day Saturday and into Sunday morning. Yesterday afternoon, forecasts had the storm’s path veering off to the east but have pushed it back west this morning.
Forecasts into next week then have also remained variable, as similar to this week, the models are struggling with the exact paths of a pair of Tropical Storms currently in the Pacific. The mid-section of the country is likely to get some sort of rainfall out of these systems by the middle of next week, but exact amounts/locations have been all over the place in the model runs and there remains notable differences between the EU and the GFS models.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 10-08-2026
Good morning.
Overnight ag trade has been quietly mixed for the most part to start Thursday, with most of the commodity market focus this morning seemingly on the outside markets amid what continues to be wait-and-see type action at the CBOT ahead of tomorrow’s monthly supply and demand update. Outside of China, El Niño, and the ongoing geopolitical situations, it’s been crop quality this week that has garnered a bulk of the daily trader, with farmers lamenting the impacts wet weather through September had on crops, especially in the west. There are more questions than answers at this point and the final impact won’t likely be known for months, but traders are betting today that the effects will be rather negative and that crop sizes are likely to work lower between now and January.
Corn futures to start Thursday morning are trading either side of unchanged, soybean futures are trading 3-5 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading unchanged to a penny higher.
This morning’s weekly export sales report, with data for the week ending October 1st, is expected to show corn sales in the week between 600k – 1.7 mil MTs, soybean sales between 450k – 1.2 mil MTs, and wheat sales between 200k-500k MTs.
Tomorrow’s October WASDE update, according to a Reuters survey of analysts, is expected to show corn yield coming in at an average of 177.7 bu/acre, which would put production at 15.721 bil bu; soybean yields are seen at 52.8 bu/acre, with production at 4.534 bil bu. Ending stocks for corn are estimated at 1.670 bil bu, soybeans at 305 mil bu, and wheat at 721 mil bu. At the world level, corn stocks are seen at 273.8 MMTs, soybean stocks are seen at 123.33 MMTs, and wheat stocks are seen at 276.6 MMTs.
The Federal Trade Commission, along with the USDA, launched an investigation this week into farm equipment market practices, including potential anticompetitive conduct, following farmer complaints regarding barriers to equipment purchases and obtaining repair services. The probe is said to focus on whether farmers face inflated equipment prices and unnecessary restrictions on keeping machinery operating.
Lithuania’s Prime Minister said this week that his country was pushing for an EU ban on Russian grain transit through its ports, joining other Baltic states in voicing concern over the situation. “This is an unacceptable situation,” said the Prime Minister. He also added that he had been in regular contact with Latvia and that their positions were aligned.
Private Black Sea analyst SovEcon this week dropped Russia’s 2026/27 wheat production forecast a little less than 1% from their previous estimate to 87.5 MMTs and also raised their production estimate for Ukraine a little less than 2% to 33.4 MMTs on strong early yields. The group cited lower production forecasts for parts of Siberia and the Central Federal District.
The National Hurricane Center has continued to fine-tune the path of Isaias, which has strengthened into a hurricane since yesterday. This morning’s 4am update has the storm making landfall around 1am Friday night/Saturday morning and then working its way almost due north through the day Saturday and into Sunday morning. Yesterday afternoon, forecasts had the storm’s path veering off to the east but have pushed it back west this morning.
Forecasts into next week then have also remained variable, as similar to this week, the models are struggling with the exact paths of a pair of Tropical Storms currently in the Pacific. The mid-section of the country is likely to get some sort of rainfall out of these systems by the middle of next week, but exact amounts/locations have been all over the place in the model runs and there remains notable differences between the EU and the GFS models.
Have a great day.
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