Good morning.
An overnight rally in the soy complex has backed off a bit into the morning hours, with prices still in the green but well off their highs made the first few hours last night. The grain markets, meanwhile, are near unchanged and have seen smaller ranges and light volume as traders continue to wait for today’s report. We covered it fairly in depth yesterday afternoon but will reiterate that today’s numbers affect a rather small portion of the overall fundamental landscape in the grain and soy markets and will be passed over fairly quickly baring some sort of unexpected bombshell from the government. Longer term, its weather in South America, Chinese buying, and the war in the Black Sea that will continue to have the biggest impact on price direction.
Corn futures to start wrapping up the week are trading either side of unchanged, soybean futures are trading 4-6 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading either side of unchanged as well.
This morning’s WASDE update for October is expected to show corn yield coming in at an average of 177.7 bu/acre, which would put production at 15.721 bil bu; soybean yields are seen at 52.8 bu/acre, with production at 4.534 bil bu. Ending stocks for corn are estimated at 1.670 bil bu, soybeans at 305 mil bu, and wheat at 721 mil bu. At the world level, corn stocks are seen at 273.8 MMTs, soybean stocks are seen at 123.33 MMTs, and wheat stocks are seen at 276.6 MMTs. The report is due out this morning at 11am central time.
Ukraine’s Ag Minister Taras Vysotskyi said this week that Ukraine was considering plans to send grain exports through German ports, potentially adding up to an additional million tons of export capacity from current levels. Other details were generally lacking.
Weekly crop data out of Argentina from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange showed corn planting this week had advanced to 29.9% complete, which continues to be ahead of both last year and average. The group commented that early planted crops were seeing normal emergence throughout most of the growing areas.
Weekly data from the USDA shows barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending October 3rd at 332k tons, which was down 16% from the week prior. Corn shipments in the week at 150k tons were down 24% on the week and soybean shipments at 179k tons were up 3%. STL barge freight rates were quoted at $28.85/short ton, down $1.44 from the week prior.
This morning’s 4am update regarding Isaias from the National Hurricane Center again moved the storm’s path once it makes landfall back further to the east, with they’re better model agreement this morning on the storm working north into KY and then veering off towards OH and WV as opposed to IL and IN like was seen the last couple days. Inland rainfall totals through the southeast look to range anywhere from 4-5″ along the Gulf to 1-2″ further to the north.
Into next week then, models continue to be in better agreement on the coming systems and rainfall though the mid-section of the country but will likely remain variable as a pair of tropical systems in the Pacific will impact exactly where moisture does and doesn’t fall next Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday. Totals don’t look to exceed an inch into next Friday throughout the region, but this outlook could change over the weekend.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 10-09-2026
Good morning.
An overnight rally in the soy complex has backed off a bit into the morning hours, with prices still in the green but well off their highs made the first few hours last night. The grain markets, meanwhile, are near unchanged and have seen smaller ranges and light volume as traders continue to wait for today’s report. We covered it fairly in depth yesterday afternoon but will reiterate that today’s numbers affect a rather small portion of the overall fundamental landscape in the grain and soy markets and will be passed over fairly quickly baring some sort of unexpected bombshell from the government. Longer term, its weather in South America, Chinese buying, and the war in the Black Sea that will continue to have the biggest impact on price direction.
Corn futures to start wrapping up the week are trading either side of unchanged, soybean futures are trading 4-6 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading either side of unchanged as well.
This morning’s WASDE update for October is expected to show corn yield coming in at an average of 177.7 bu/acre, which would put production at 15.721 bil bu; soybean yields are seen at 52.8 bu/acre, with production at 4.534 bil bu. Ending stocks for corn are estimated at 1.670 bil bu, soybeans at 305 mil bu, and wheat at 721 mil bu. At the world level, corn stocks are seen at 273.8 MMTs, soybean stocks are seen at 123.33 MMTs, and wheat stocks are seen at 276.6 MMTs. The report is due out this morning at 11am central time.
Ukraine’s Ag Minister Taras Vysotskyi said this week that Ukraine was considering plans to send grain exports through German ports, potentially adding up to an additional million tons of export capacity from current levels. Other details were generally lacking.
Weekly crop data out of Argentina from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange showed corn planting this week had advanced to 29.9% complete, which continues to be ahead of both last year and average. The group commented that early planted crops were seeing normal emergence throughout most of the growing areas.
Weekly data from the USDA shows barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending October 3rd at 332k tons, which was down 16% from the week prior. Corn shipments in the week at 150k tons were down 24% on the week and soybean shipments at 179k tons were up 3%. STL barge freight rates were quoted at $28.85/short ton, down $1.44 from the week prior.
This morning’s 4am update regarding Isaias from the National Hurricane Center again moved the storm’s path once it makes landfall back further to the east, with they’re better model agreement this morning on the storm working north into KY and then veering off towards OH and WV as opposed to IL and IN like was seen the last couple days. Inland rainfall totals through the southeast look to range anywhere from 4-5″ along the Gulf to 1-2″ further to the north.
Into next week then, models continue to be in better agreement on the coming systems and rainfall though the mid-section of the country but will likely remain variable as a pair of tropical systems in the Pacific will impact exactly where moisture does and doesn’t fall next Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday. Totals don’t look to exceed an inch into next Friday throughout the region, but this outlook could change over the weekend.
Have a great day.
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