Grain Comments: 01-16-2025

Good morning.

Markets are lower today, with corn, beans, and wheat all red during the overnight session. Corn is down 3-4c, soybeans down 13-14c, wheat down 7-8c. Corn spreads are firmer today with CH25/K25 trading at -8.5. SH25/K25 is trading even on the day at -12.5. Soybeans are down on building confidence in weekend rainfall potential in Argentina. The market will pay close attention to weather models released throughout the day. Estimates for US Export Sales this morning are corn at 500k-1M, soybeans at 300-800k, SBM at 150-300k, wheat at 150-300k, and soy oil at 10-50k. Equity markets will look to climb higher today with a bullish inflation report yesterday. The consumer price index rose just below the record high set in October. The US Dollar index is also higher and trading at $109.18.

Corn spreads are firmer this morning even with the board down. March/May corn spread narrowed to -8.25 this morning and has traded in a one-cent range. July/Sep corn spread is even on the day and has leveled off around a 33c inverse.

In geopolitical news, Israel and Hamas have drafted a cease-fire that should help de-escalate conflict in the area.

GREET released info regarding 45Z on the Department of Energy website but still left lots of unanswered questions with President-elect Trump’s inauguration just days away.

Basis has appeared to level off in the country after free-falling for a couple of days following a 20c corn rally/50c soybean rally. Nebraska Group #3’s were rumored to trade at -15H for Jan, which would be a 3c improvement and a sign that buyers may have reentered the market. BNSF rail freight was firmer, UP freight was steady.

CIF corn was a penny firmer for JFM. March corn CIF is bid +68H which is currently 4-5c below delivery for the northern ILR. CIF Jan soybeans are bid +72H and are down 14c since pre-report levels.

Brazilian corn exports are projected to reach almost 3 MMT in Jan ’25 while soybean exports are expected to reach 2.2 MMT. Soybean basis levels in Brazil collapsed yesterday but leveled off to end the day yesterday.

Temperatures will be on the rise for much of the Midwest the next couple of days, but a cold front system will move in bringing frigid temperatures through most of next week.

February extended models have called for some colder-than-normal temperatures. Shippers have looked to get freight locked in the ILR with fears of ice slowing logistics. It was a fairly active day of barge freight trading yesterday.

SA Weather: The 0z 5-day precipitation report showed a streak of rain for the central part of Argentina that should benefit the soybean crop. Brazil remains wet with some additional scattered showers projected for southern Brazil and Matto Grosso.

Have a great day.