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Grain Comments: 01-24-2024

Good morning.

Ag markets are mixed/higher in overnight trade to start Wednesday. Prevailing macro themes remain in place, as the US military launched fresh missile strikes in Yemen overnight. Ag-specific news has been limited to the debate on South American crop sizes and what export potential looks like out of Brazil and Argentina into US spring/summer. Corn futures are 1/2-1 cent higher, soybean futures are mixed to up a penny, and the Chicago wheat market is up 4-5 cents. Products are mixed, bean meal is $2-3/ton higher, while bean oil is off 25-30 points. Outside markets mixed, crude oil futures are 20-30 cents higher, the Dow Jones index is up 150 points, and the US$ index is down 50 points. US$ still having an inside day form yesterday early in the morning.

The US military again carried out missile strikes in Yemen Tuesday night, destroying two anti-ship missiles that were aimed at the Red Sea and preparing to launch.

Israel and Hamas have continued talks on a 30-day ceasefire in Gaza, but no agreement has been made at this point. IDF forces continued their assault on Southern Gaza’s main city Tuesday.

A Russian military plane carrying 65 Ukrainian POW’s, along with six crew and three guards, crashed near the Ukraine border. Russian news reports all onboard were killed.

Former President Donald Trump had a decisive victory in the New Hampshire primary, bringing him closer to a November rematch with Joe Biden. Nikki Haley said after the results, “This race is far from over.”

Trump becomes the first Republican to sweep votes in both Iowa and New Hampshire since 1976, when the two states became the first nominating contests.

French farmers blocked roads Wednesday in protest over lower consumer prices and increased environmental regulations.

LNG imports into Japan fell to 66.2 million metric tons in 2023, the lowest level since 2009. This following nuclear power restarts, and increased use of renewable energy.

Today’s weekly ethanol report is expected to show production of 952k bbls/day, compared to 1.044 mil bbls last week. Stocks are seen at 25.558 mil bbls, vs 25.695 mil bbls last week.

Brazil cash corn had its best day of 2024 on Tuesday, as prices made new lows before closing well above the end of last week.

South American weather has continued to trend drier in Argentina and Southern Brazil into the first week of February. This will need monitoring as moisture will be needed to finish Argentina’s record yield potential.

Most feel moisture in Northern Brazil is currently doing more to help depleted soil moisture levels for the second corn crop, than it is doing damage to the finishing soybean crop. Local soybean harvest delays will be seen.

Warmer temps are still seen for most of the US Midwest this weekend, but winter precipitation still managed to hit most of the eastern Midwest on Tuesday.

Have a wonderful day!

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