Grain Comments: 01.24.25

Good morning. Happy Friday. Corn and soybean markets saw gap-lower starts to begin the last overnight trading session of the week last night, and are currently trading lower still this morning. In an interview with Fox news late Thursday evening, President Trump, while on the topic of China trade tariffs, said he would rather not have to use the measures, but added they give him the power to curb fentanyl trafficking; this, likely combined with some measure of profit taking from the longs, has brought about a ‘risk-off’ mood to end the week. Due to yesterday’s wide-ranging trade, the gaps are not open on the charts but have still given the market a bearish lean nonetheless. Corn futures this morning are trading 3-5 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 10-14 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is down 6-7 cents. Products are lower, soybean meal is down $7-8/ton, and soybean oil is down 40-50 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are up 20-50 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 120 points, and the US$ index is down about 50 points. The S&P500 is down 5 points and the NASDAQ is down 10 points. Of note, gold futures are up around $20/oz after closing lower yesterday for just the second time in the last 13 sessions.

Today’s Reports: Weekly Export Sales; January Cattle on Feed; CFTC Commitment of Traders

• This morning’s weekly export sales report for the week ending January 16th is expected to show corn sales for the week in a range of 700k-1.7 mil mt’s, soybean sales in a range of 600k-1.8 mil mt’s, and wheat sales in a range of 200k-600k mt’s. 2025/26 sales are estimated between 0 and 50k mt’s for all three crops.

• The USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report for January is due after the close today; the report is expected to show the US feedlot herd as of January 1 at 11.882 mil head, or 99.6% of last year. Placements in December are estimated at 1.698 mil head, while marketings are seen at 1.746 mil head; placements would be unchanged from last year, while marketings would be just over 101% of last year.