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Grain Comments: 01-30-2024

Good morning.

Ag markets are again lower in overnight trade, as turn-around-Tuesday has not quite taken hold yet. Charts have again soured, with most ag’s sitting at or near their recent lows. Corn futures are 2-3 cents lower, soybean futures are 1-2 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is 6-7 cents lower. Products are mixed, meal is following through on yesterday’s trade, up $1-2/ton, while bean oil is down around 40 points. Outside markets are mostly lower, crude oil is down 20-30 cents, the Dow Jones index is down 50 points, and the US$ index is down 15 points.

Undercover Israeli commandos stormed a hospital overnight and killed three men they believed were members of Hamas. This further stokes fears of the war spreading to other fronts.

Hamas leaders also said Tuesday they had received a new ceasefire proposal following talks in Paris, which they would discuss and review in Cairo.

State oil agency Aramco has received a directive from the Ministry of Energy in Saudi Arabia to maintain its maximum production capacity at 12 mil bpd. The company said it had received the instruction as it was working to increase production to 13 mil bpd.

Poet LLC, the world’s top ethanol producer, has joined with Summit Carbon Solutions on a massive carbon-capture and storage project. Of note, this would allow ethanol produced at Poet facilities to have a carbon score that would qualify it for renewable fuel such as SAF.

This comes just months after a previous plan Poet was part of had been scrapped amid regulatory obstacles and obstruction from landowners.

AgResource Company has lowered their estimate of the Brazilian soybean crop from 150.7 mmt’s, to 145.2 mmt’s, citing yield reductions in Mato Grosso and Goias.

Winter wheat ratings in Kansas were seen at 54% g/ex, compared with 43% last month. Illinois was seen improving from 55% g/ex last month, to 75% this month.

Otherwise, fresh fundamental news is lacking. Traders remain focused on South American crop sizes as well as happenings in the Middle East, with neither front providing fresh new headlines this morning.

South American weather runs are like the overnight models in continuing to call for Argentine rain in the 2-week period, but not being able to pull it forward. Heat/dryness are forecast for another 10 days.

Northern Brazil is forecast to see rainfall totals of 2-5″ in the next 10 days, with temps seen in the 80’s/90’s. Soybean harvest is advancing here.

Have a wonderful day!

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