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Grain Comments: 02-01-2024

Good morning.

Another night of selling at the CBOT, as grains and the soy complex have all traded to losses so far in the overnight session. A higher US$ index has helped pressure the ag markets. Today marks the start of the spring acreage battle, as February is the pricing month for the spring revenue insurance level. Otherwise, fundamental news remains the same. Corn futures are 3-4 cents lower, soybean futures are 10-12 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is 7-8 cents lower. Products are lower, soybean meal is off $3-4/ton, and soybean oil is off 30 points. Outside markets higher, crude oil futures are up 60-70 cents, the Dow Jones index is 50 points higher, and the US$ index is up 40 points.

This morning’s weekly export sales report is expected to show 800k-1.3 mil mt’s of corn sales, 500k-1.05 mil mt’s of soybean sales, and 275k-600k mt’s of wheat sales. Sales figures within these estimates would be viewed as routine.

Today’s census crush and corn ethanol grind report for December is expected to show soybean crush a 206.5 mil bu, up 10.2% from last year. Corn used for ethanol is seen at 474.4 mil bu, up 11.4% from last year.

Soybean harvest in Brazil reached 9% complete this week, up 4% from last week. 5-year average pace is 6% and they were 4% complete on this week last year.

Safrinha corn planting reached 11% this week, compared with 7% last week and 5% last year, as soybean harvest advances. The first crop corn harvest was seen 15% complete.

The European Commission is expected to extend the suspension of import duties on Ukrainian exports for another year, now running through June of 2025.

Farmer protests reached Brussels on Thursday, as eggs were thrown at European Parliament, fires were started near the building, and fireworks were set off. Farmers want help with taxes, rising production costs, and cheap imports flooding their markets.

The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged yesterday, in a similar move to the US Fed. Officials cited wanting more evidence inflation would permanently return to target levels.

The Dow Jones index is trading higher this morning, after putting in a key reversal lower yesterday. New record high at 38720.

Weather forecasts remain little changed from previous runs, with showers still seen showing up in Argentina Feb 8-9th. Temps still seen reaching the 90’s/100’s. N Brazil expected to receive 2-5″ in the next 10 days.

Have a wonderful day.

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