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Grain Comments: 02-08-2024

Good morning.

Welcome to report day. CONAB, StatsCan, and USDA will all be out with new national S&D updates today, which likely provides fresh fodder for the markets. Rainfall has continued in Argentina overnight, as a front is moving north and east through the country. Corn futures are unchanged to a penny higher, soybean futures are up 5-6 cents, and the Chicago wheat market is down 8-9 cents. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down around 20 cents/ton, and soybean oil is up 30-40 points. Outside markets mixed, crude oil futures are up $1/bbl, the stock market is marginally lower, and the US$ index is up around 20 points.

Today’s Reports: US Weekly Export Sales; CONAB Monthly S&D; StatsCan Monthly S&D; USDA Monthly S&D; US Jobless Claims

CONAB estimated Brazil soybean production at 149.4 mmt’s, compared with 155.3 mmt’s last month. Planted acres were dropped by 200k.

Brazil total corn production was estimated at 113.7 mmt’s, compared with 117.6 last month. The second crop corn was estimated at 88 mmt’s, compared with 91.2 last month.

CONAB also interestingly raised Brazil wheat output from 8.097 mmt’s, to 10.199 mmt’s.

These numbers were mostly in line with expectations and likely don’t offer a market-changing outlook going forward. The big question will be if USDA follows in making adjustments.

The US military Wednesday night carried out a strike in Baghdad, killing a senior Hezbollah commander. The military said Abu Baqir al-Saadi was directly responsible for the deaths of three American soldiers in January.

The military also said there were no indications of civilian casualties. The strike hit a moving vehicle in the Iraqi capital and killed the commander and two of his guards.

Spanish farmers snarled traffic outside of Paris for a third day Thursday, as demands for cheaper costs and a reduction of imports continue.

This morning’s weekly export sales report is expected to show corn sales of 600k-1.3 mmt’s, soybean sales of 400k-1.0 mmt’s, and wheat sales of 275k-550k mt’s. Business looks to be routine.

No major changes to South American forecasts overnight, as Argentina continues to see rainfall of 1-3″ into the first part of next week. Temps are seen moderating.

US Midwest temps look to remain well above average into the second week of February, before a potential return to colder temps is seen for the last half of Feb.

Have a great day!

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