Grain Comments: 03-10-2023

Good Morning

The grains are set to finish off a bearish week with the feed grains holding this morning after fresh lows, while soybeans take the loss within a bit more of a range-bound recent pattern. The trade seems unmoved by historic cuts to Argentine production, ready for Brazil to make up for that loss and U.S. crops to pile on to supplies this season, but overall, speculative traders have little interest in the grains against rising interest rate prospects.

U.S. forecasts remain active going forward with normal to above-normal precipitation expected across the next two weeks, to go along with continued cold temperatures. Another event tomorrow will bring more snow and rain from north to south across the Midwest, with the best chances for the southern Plains arriving during the 11-15 day time frame.

Argentina saw some isolated rains far south yesterday with chances increasing in the south and west going forward, remaining dry north and east, with temperatures still warm throughout. Brazil again saw rains center-north over the past 24 hours, with action widespread through Tuesday and wet conditions lingering center-north into the 6-10 day. Chances remain slim far south.

As the March WASDE numbers start to lose their impact on the market, we will see attention shift back to previous fundamental factors. These will include US exports and ongoing yield reports and weather conditions in South America. Export pressure is expected to continue to ramp up as the Brazilian harvest progresses and more soybeans become available. Now is when the United States will start to see how many buyers stay with us or shift to South America for soybean needs. Before long this will start to be a factor in corn demand as well. All eyes on demand remain on China, and with negative feed margins in the country it is unlikely they will be buying commodities from any source. We will now start to see more positioning for the reports that will be released at month. These are the quarterly stocks and prospective plantings numbers. The more interest in these will fall on potential acreage and if the Ag Outlook Forum was close in their estimates. The stocks data will give us a clearer idea of old crop ending stocks. Historically the stocks data impacts old crop contracts while acreage is a factor for new crop.

Have a great day!