Grain Comments: 02.11.25

Good morning. Welcome to USDA report day. Ag markets, and commodity markets in general, are mostly quiet to start Tuesday morning as traders continue to wait for today’s fresh supply and demand data in the form of the February WASDE report. President Trump late yesterday afternoon signed into effect as of March 12th the new 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports coming into the US that were discussed coming out of the weekend, and also mentioned that retaliatory tariffs brought up last week would likely be implemented in the next 48 hours. Trump is re-writing US trade flows and the process is not going to be a quick one; as time goes on, markets will presumably become more disinterested in the headlines, but be aware this is a multi-year, not multi-month undertaking. Corn futures this morning are trading around a penny higher, soybean futures are 2-3 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is up 4-5 cents. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up $2/ton, and soybean oil is down 5-10 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are up around $1/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 80 points, and the US$ index is down 10 points. The S&P500 is down 15 points and the NASDAQ is down 90 points. Gold and coffee futures each again made new contract highs overnight, but are both trading lower as of this writing this morning.

Today’s Reports: USDA February WASDE; API Energy Stocks

• New market moving fundamental news in the grain space is largely lacking this morning, with most traders just waiting for the clock to strike 11am central time. Due to a surprisingly friendly January report, the bull camp is hopeful today yields a similar result despite this report typically not being a market mover in most years. Old crop corn will see resistance just below $5 today, while old crop soybeans see the 10.80 area as initial upside resistance.

• China’s Ag Ministry, in a monthly report released Monday, said corn demand from animal feeders and processors has increased since the Lunar New Year holiday, but not by enough to alter the current supply and demand outlook; the Ministry made no adjustments to estimates for production, use, or ending stocks.

• A private analytics center in Russia says the country could possibly export 2.4-2.5 mmt’s of wheat in the month of February, which compares to a previous estimate of 2.2-2.3 mmt’s, and last year’s February figure of 4.4 mmt’s. Exports in January totaled 2.47 mmt’s, down from 4.08 mmt’s in 2024.

• Staying in Russia, the Ag Ministry yesterday said in a note published to its website that the majority of the wheat export quota that has been set from February 15 to June 30 was assigned to 219 companies. The ministry says it has distributed roughly 80% of the quotas, which account for around 8.6 mmt’s of wheat imports.

• Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to testify before both Republicans and Democrats in Congress today and tomorrow as part of a semiannual hearing; the comments will likely key investor sentiment going home on Tuesday, as the data slate is again otherwise mostly quiet. Lawmakers will likely ask questions regarding future policy outlook for 2025, as well as the current health of the US economy and how Powell and Trump’s relationship have been to this point in the President’s second term.