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Grain Comments 02.16.24

Good morning. Happy Friday. Ag markets are bouncing a bit to end the week, as fund managers cover shorts and bank some profits heading into a three-day holiday weekend. With China and Brazil also coming off holidays, its likely Friday’s volume is curtailed. Corn futures are a half cent higher, soybean futures are 2-3 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is down 4-5 cents. Products are mostly higher, soybean meal is up $2/ton, and soybean oil is down 20 points. Outside markets are quiet, crude oil futures are down 60-70 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones Index is down 30 points, and the US$ index is unchanged.

 

Today’s Reports: January PPI

 

  • Markets are seeing some profit taking following what looks to be another lower close on the weekly charts. Old and new crop corn futures again made new contract lows this morning.

 

  • Crop conditions in Argentina were seen stabilizing somewhat in their latest weekly crop update, as recent rains and a return to normal temps have helped crop development.

 

  • Soybean conditions were seen at 31% good/excellent, which is unchanged from last week. Fair increased by 3%, while poor/very poor decreased a like 3%.

 

  • Corn conditions were seen at 27% g/ex, down 4% from last week. Fair went form 54% to 56%, while p/vp also increased 2%, from 15% to 17%.

 

  • The International Grains Council (IGC) increased their world grain production outlook in a monthly report released yesterday. Estimate is now 2.31 bil mt’s, up 3 mmt’s from last month.

 

  • The council also raised their world corn production outlook to 1.23 bil mt’s, up 4 mmt’s from last month. End of season grain stocks estimate was cut by 1 mmt, to 589 mmt’s.

 

  • Ukraine combined grain and oilseed output is seen decreasing by 15-20% in 2024, due to a decrease in planted acres. This according to a Kyiv-based business association, UCAB.

 

  • Barge shipments down the Mississippi River decreased in the week ending Feb 10th to 584k tons, down from 598k the week prior, according to USDA.

 

  • In financial markets, January PPI is seen rising 0.1% in January, after falling in December. This out at 7:30am central time.

 

  • British retail sales increased by 3.4% from to December to January, the biggest jump in nearly three years. Economists had forecast an increase of 1.5%.

 

  • Alexey Navalny, the Russian lawyer and anti-corruption activist who vehemently opposed Putin, has died in custody according to a Russian news report. He was 47.

 

  • This comes as the War in Ukraine approaches its two year mark next week.

 

  • Egypt has said they are planning an area near the Gaza border which could accommodate Palestinians in the event of an Israeli offensive into the southern city of Rafah.

 

  • Argentina continues to see dry weather for another week, before storms are seen returning next weekend. Temperatures are seen average.

 

  • North and Central Brazil continue to see scattered rainfall into next week, when totals are then seen increasing. Local fieldwork delays will be possible.

 

  • The US Midwest sees a band of rain/snow moving through the southern part of the area into Friday evening/Saturday. Temps return to above average next week, and look to remain there into March.

 

  • No markets Sunday night/Monday for President’s Day. Trade resumes Monday evening. Have a good weekend!

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