Grain Comments: 02-23-2023

Good Morning

USDA Ag Forum figures, for what they’re worth at this point in the season, came in a bit bearish in terms of corn production and wheat acreage, bullish soybean acreage/production/carryout. There’s still work to be done before March acreage estimates and April/May planting season but farmers will plant fence row to fence row at these prices regardless…

USDA Ag Forum estimates this morning pegged 2023 U.S. corn plantings at 91.0 million acres, up from 88.6 mln ac in 2022 and in line with trade expectations; soybean acreage came in at 87.5 mln ac, even with 2022 but around a million below the average trade estimate. All–wheat plantings came in at 49.5 mln ac, up from 45.7 mln ac in 2022 and above the 48.7 mln ac trade guess. The government has corn production at 15.085 bln bu due to strong yields at 181.5 bpa, with ending stocks seen at 1.887 bln bu, up over 600 mbu from 2022/23. Soybean production is seen at 4.510 bln bu with yields at 52.0 bpa, leaving ‘23/24 ending stocks at 290 mbu, up from 225 mbu this season. All wheat output was pegged at 1.887 bln bu with carryout at 608 mbu, up slight-ly from 568 mbu at the end of the 2022/23 season.

Tomorrow afternoon’s USDA Cattle on Feed Report is expected to show all U.S. cattle on feed as of February 1 at 11.772 million head, or 96.5% of last year; January placements are seen at 97.1% of last year, while January marketings are estimated at 103.9% of last season.

Snow remains north this morning with the heaviest precipitation coming as rains in the northern ECB over the past 24 hours; Sun/Mon brings the next chance for precipitation for all but the far west, with extended maps still wet up into March. Temps are still running cold west/northwest and warmer east/southeast.

Argentina saw some scattered rains in the west yesterday, lingering far north over the next week to ten days, but remaining dry for most. Brazilian rains were scattered throughout over the past 24 hours, heavy in the heart of the belt through Monday then shifting to center-south crop areas for the 6-10.

Have a great day