Good morning.
CBOT ag markets are mostly higher this morning to start Thursday trade, with bean oil the lone lower trading market of the bunch on an overnight fall in crude oil prices. Summer month old crop bean futures (July, Aug, Sep) all managed to take out the highs made last fall overnight last night, which would seemingly now make the question how much more to go is there? In our opinion, the fundamentals would argue not very until we see evidence of additional Chinese bean buying, but as the old saying goes, markets can stay irrational for far longer than one can stay solvent; if funds/algos want to continue pressing the long side, we have a hard time ruling out a further grind higher in the short term. Corn futures to start on Thursday are 1-2 cents higher, soybean futures are 1-3 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading unchanged to a penny higher.
A USDA spokesperson said at the Commodity Classic in San Antonio on Wednesday that around $1.6 billion had already been sent out to farmers under the Bridge Assistance program and also mentioned that roughly 32,000 online applications had been received for the payments already with that process just beginning on Monday. Farmers can submit applications for the payments through April 17th.
Ukraine’s state rail company said on Thursday that grain deliveries to Black Sea ports for export had increased by around 2% in February compared to the month prior but added that the totals were still down from the year prior amid ongoing Russian missile/drone strikes. A separate source said earlier this month that strikes in the Odesa region had reduced the area’s export capacity by around 30% compared to pre-war levels.
Bloomberg’s reporting this morning, citing cash sources familiar with the situation, that Indian buyers have canceled upwards of 75,000 tons of soybean oil purchases from South America in recent days, as a price rally over the last few weeks has presented an opportunity to re-sell the cargoes at a profit. The sources say buyers have made $40-60/ton on the washed-out cargoes and anticipate the total quantity could possibly reach 120,000 tons in the days ahead should the market rally continue.
Staying in this part of the world, a pair of Indian weather bureau sources said on Thursday that forecasts indicated the country was potentially set for its hottest March on record, which could have a negative impact on crop yields if it verifies. The sources said maximum temperatures in the month are expected to be, on average, around 7 degrees C above normal for a pocket of states that account for nearly 80% of the country’s wheat and rapeseed production. Indian farmers are expecting record harvests this year due to good monsoonal rains to start the year and record planted area.
Crude oil futures are under pressure this morning due to OPEC+ headlines overnight indicating that the group could possibly be looking at increasing member output by around 137,000 bbls/day starting in April, which would end a three-month pause period. Sources familiars say the group is looking ahead to the busy summer driving season and recent price gains due to US-Iran tensions as reason for the proposed increases. To that end, lower ranking members from the two countries have begun another round of nuclear talks in Switzerland this morning, which is also likely weighing on energy markets.
In response to an ongoing US investigation into China’s adherence to the Phase One trade agreement reached during President Trump’s first term, Chinese officials warned they would take “all necessary measures” if the US implements new tariffs tied to the review. The country’s Commerce Ministry said China had honored commitments on intellectual property, financial services, and ag access despite disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. The exchange illustrates ongoing tensions between the two sides ahead of a planned visit by President Trump to Beijing in just a little over a month now.
The US southeast looks to pick up anywhere from a couple tenths to an inch or so of rainfall through the day today, as somewhat scattered bands of moisture work through the area into the end of the week. From there, the central/upper Midwest expects to maybe see a small clipper work through Saturday and into Saturday night but sees little precipitation through the region elsewhere. Then, though in poor agreement, models see a more well-defined system working through the central part of the area Sunday night into Monday and then exiting the East Coast Monday evening/Tuesday. This is the forecast feature that will need monitored into the end of the week and through the weekend, with a mix of snow/rain/ice expected.
Temperature anomaly forecasts trended cooler overnight through southern and south-central Argentina, but otherwise, forecasts for the region again saw little change overnight. Rains will favor western Argentina for another 24-48 hours before storms expand back into the south-central and central regions over the weekend. This moisture continues to work north and east through the week next week, with this morning’s EU run shrinking the size of the dry pocket to now mostly just include southern Brazil and the eastern half of Paraguay. If there’s a forecast concern today, it’s that too much moisture continues to fall through northern and north-central Brazil that negatively impacts soybean quality.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 02-26-2026
Good morning.
CBOT ag markets are mostly higher this morning to start Thursday trade, with bean oil the lone lower trading market of the bunch on an overnight fall in crude oil prices. Summer month old crop bean futures (July, Aug, Sep) all managed to take out the highs made last fall overnight last night, which would seemingly now make the question how much more to go is there? In our opinion, the fundamentals would argue not very until we see evidence of additional Chinese bean buying, but as the old saying goes, markets can stay irrational for far longer than one can stay solvent; if funds/algos want to continue pressing the long side, we have a hard time ruling out a further grind higher in the short term. Corn futures to start on Thursday are 1-2 cents higher, soybean futures are 1-3 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading unchanged to a penny higher.
A USDA spokesperson said at the Commodity Classic in San Antonio on Wednesday that around $1.6 billion had already been sent out to farmers under the Bridge Assistance program and also mentioned that roughly 32,000 online applications had been received for the payments already with that process just beginning on Monday. Farmers can submit applications for the payments through April 17th.
Ukraine’s state rail company said on Thursday that grain deliveries to Black Sea ports for export had increased by around 2% in February compared to the month prior but added that the totals were still down from the year prior amid ongoing Russian missile/drone strikes. A separate source said earlier this month that strikes in the Odesa region had reduced the area’s export capacity by around 30% compared to pre-war levels.
Bloomberg’s reporting this morning, citing cash sources familiar with the situation, that Indian buyers have canceled upwards of 75,000 tons of soybean oil purchases from South America in recent days, as a price rally over the last few weeks has presented an opportunity to re-sell the cargoes at a profit. The sources say buyers have made $40-60/ton on the washed-out cargoes and anticipate the total quantity could possibly reach 120,000 tons in the days ahead should the market rally continue.
Staying in this part of the world, a pair of Indian weather bureau sources said on Thursday that forecasts indicated the country was potentially set for its hottest March on record, which could have a negative impact on crop yields if it verifies. The sources said maximum temperatures in the month are expected to be, on average, around 7 degrees C above normal for a pocket of states that account for nearly 80% of the country’s wheat and rapeseed production. Indian farmers are expecting record harvests this year due to good monsoonal rains to start the year and record planted area.
Crude oil futures are under pressure this morning due to OPEC+ headlines overnight indicating that the group could possibly be looking at increasing member output by around 137,000 bbls/day starting in April, which would end a three-month pause period. Sources familiars say the group is looking ahead to the busy summer driving season and recent price gains due to US-Iran tensions as reason for the proposed increases. To that end, lower ranking members from the two countries have begun another round of nuclear talks in Switzerland this morning, which is also likely weighing on energy markets.
In response to an ongoing US investigation into China’s adherence to the Phase One trade agreement reached during President Trump’s first term, Chinese officials warned they would take “all necessary measures” if the US implements new tariffs tied to the review. The country’s Commerce Ministry said China had honored commitments on intellectual property, financial services, and ag access despite disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. The exchange illustrates ongoing tensions between the two sides ahead of a planned visit by President Trump to Beijing in just a little over a month now.
The US southeast looks to pick up anywhere from a couple tenths to an inch or so of rainfall through the day today, as somewhat scattered bands of moisture work through the area into the end of the week. From there, the central/upper Midwest expects to maybe see a small clipper work through Saturday and into Saturday night but sees little precipitation through the region elsewhere. Then, though in poor agreement, models see a more well-defined system working through the central part of the area Sunday night into Monday and then exiting the East Coast Monday evening/Tuesday. This is the forecast feature that will need monitored into the end of the week and through the weekend, with a mix of snow/rain/ice expected.
Temperature anomaly forecasts trended cooler overnight through southern and south-central Argentina, but otherwise, forecasts for the region again saw little change overnight. Rains will favor western Argentina for another 24-48 hours before storms expand back into the south-central and central regions over the weekend. This moisture continues to work north and east through the week next week, with this morning’s EU run shrinking the size of the dry pocket to now mostly just include southern Brazil and the eastern half of Paraguay. If there’s a forecast concern today, it’s that too much moisture continues to fall through northern and north-central Brazil that negatively impacts soybean quality.
Have a great day.
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