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Grain Comments: 02-27-2023
Good Morning!
Corn took the largest share of volume overnight but is holding the closest to unchanged throughout its complex this morning; it’s still matching two-plus month lows following the USDA Ag Forum. Bullish fundamental help looks to be very thin this week with export sales seasonally steady-to-lower, and Argentine crop failures generally thought to be priced in.
Heavy rains and mixed precipitation linger in the central and eastern belt this morning after plenty of action center-south over the past 24 hours; coverage was solid in Kansas but lighter in the southern Plains. Forecasts remain active precipitation wise going forward, with temps running cold up into mid-March.
Argentine rains fell in the far north and east over the weekend and remain there going forward, with conditions staying hot and dry throughout. Meanwhile, Brazilian rains were heavy and widespread over the weekend and forecasts remain active, though dryness concerns linger in RDGS with some harvest/fieldwork delays still holding in some areas.
The early portion of this week’s trade will be spent getting positions in place ahead of month end. This will be more of a factor this month as all three of the spot contracts go into delivery. Much of the positioning for this has been done but there is always some positions held until the last minute. We will also see ongoing discussion in the market surrounding last week’s Ag Outlook Forum data. Now that we are beyond these numbers being released trade will be looking for its next round of fundamental information being released. The initial one will be the March WASDE report that will be published on the 8th. Trade will be focused on changes to South American production in this more than anything else. Several traders are looking beyond this report though and showing more interest in the March 31st prospective plantings report. This will be the first real projection on US acreage as Baseline and Ag Forum data is formed by using historical trends rather than actual field collected data. The US needs to see high plantings of all major crops this year which is putting more emphasis on acreage data than in most years.
Have a great day!
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