Grain Comments: 03.01.24

Good morning. Happy Friday. And happy first day of meteorological spring. Markets are mixed at the CBOT with corn and wheat futures lower, and the soybean complex higher. Position squaring/profit taking will likely be the theme Friday, as traders prepare for the weekend and next week’s USDA March WASDE report. Corn futures are 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are 6-7 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is down 4-5 cents. Products are higher, soybean meal is up $1.50-2.50/ton, and soybean oil is up 20-30 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are $1-1.25/bbl higher, the Dow Jones index is down 20 points, and the US$ index is down 5 points.

Today’s Reports: Swiss PMI; EU Unemployment

• Overnight, US congress approved temporary funding to avert a Saturday partial government shutdown. The bill now just needs Biden’s signature, and notably does not include any aid for Ukraine.

• New crop Spring revenue insurance prices look to be $4.66 for corn and $11.55 for soybeans. These both down significantly from last year.

• Deliveries for March 1 included 502 contracts of soybeans, 116 contracts of wheat, 3 contracts of corn, 1 contract of soybean meal, and 37 contracts of soybean oil.

• Argentina weekly crop progress showed little change last week for corn or soybean conditions. Soybeans in the g/ex category were seen at 30%, down 1% from last week. Fair was unchanged at 52%, while p/vp was up 1% to 18%.

• Corn conditions were seen at 30% g/ex, which was up 2% from last week. Fair was also unchanged for corn at 57%, with p/vp down a corresponding 2% to 13%.

• BAGE did not make any changes to their production forecasts, with corn still pegged at 56.5 mmt’s, and soybeans at 52.5 mmt’s.

• The EU Commission lowered EU soft wheat production by 0.3 mmt’s yesterday, to 125.6 mmt’s. Commission also raised wheat imports 0.5 mmt’s to 17.5 mmt’s.

• EU commission also raised their corn production forecast to 62.3 mmt’s, up 0.9 mmt’s from their previous forecast. Corn imports were also reduced by 1.5 mmt’s.

• January soybean crush is seen at 196.3 mil bu, which would be up 2.7% from a year ago. Stocks for January were seen at 1.994 bil lbs, vs 2.356 bil last year.

• Corn used for ethanol was seen at 445.9 mil bu in January, up 1.1% from last year. USDA’s January Fats and Oils report, as well as grain crushings report, will be out today at 2pm. This corrects date from yesterday.

• EIA yesterday showed soyoil used to produce biofuel in December rose to 1,141 mil lbs. This up from 1,062 in November.

• Ukraine exported roughly 5.2 mmt’s of grain in the month of February according to a report; this is the highest monthly figure since the Russian invasion.

• Barge shipments down the Mississippi River were up 108k tons in the week ended Feb 24th. Corn shipments were up 5%, while soybean shipments were up 38.4%.

• We will see if there are any policy announcements out of Houston today, as the Biden administration has self-imposed a March 1 deadline to update the government method of calculating greenhouse gas emissions.

• Argentina saw some surprise showers Thursday, as a small disturbance brought moisture to the southern parts of the country. A front moves through this weekend, with rainfall becoming more isolated next week.

• Brazil to see normal rainfall this weekend, before totals become more isolated by the end of next week. While conducive for soy harvest, safrinha corn will need more moisture.

A weak storm system brings isolated showers through the Ohio River Valley today before moving out by the weekend. Temps warm up again Saturday and Sunday before another low pressure system moves into the plains, bringing potentially severe weather