Grain Comments: 03-04-2026

Good morning. Following more volatility through the overnight hours last night, commodity markets are seeing the first real bit of calm since the week started Sunday evening, with the grains, the energies and the equity markets all relatively near unchanged this morning despite most seeing more wide-ranging trade the last several hours. There continues to be more questions than answers regarding the overall geopolitical situation in general, but at least for now, it seems the faster moving traders have got their positions where they want them. Corn futures to get Wednesday started are trading 1-3 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 2-3 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 8-9 cents lower.

📅 Today’s Reports: EIA Weekly Ethanol Production/Energy Stocks

• According to the CME Group, there were another 244 contracts of soybeans assigned for delivery overnight, along with 1 contract of corn, 91 contracts of KC wheat, and 55 contracts of rough rice.

• This morning’s weekly EIA ethanol update is expected to show average US daily production in the week ending February 27th between 1.110-1.150 mil bbls, while stocks in the week are seen between 25.50-26.146 mil bbls. On average, both figures would be up from last week.

• Further trade news for Wednesday includes comments from President Trump that the US needs to impose tariffs on countries that manipulate their currencies or trade practices, indicating that a 15% tariff currently in place for five months would be used as leverage against such nations while further reviews and investigations were completed.

• In a monthly outlook, the European Commission made just minor adjustments to its crop balance sheets, cutting soft wheat exports by 1 MMT to 28.5 MMTs while production was raised slightly to 134.4 MMTs. Total grain production though was left unchanged at 287.4 MMTs.

• Sources familiar with the matter are reporting that India has canceled additional soybean oil cargoes over the past week, as costs for the imports continue to rise compared to alternatives. Around 25,000 tons booked from Russia that was to be shipped in March-April, as well as 6,000-8,000 tons from South America that were to ship in April-July are said to have been axed in recent days. The cancelations come after Indica canceled nearly 70,000 tons of South American bean oil last week and at least another 35,000 tons during the month of January.

• Active weather has remained present overnight and into the morning this morning, as radar continues to show a steady flow of storm activity throughout the central and south-central parts of the Midwest through the day today and into tomorrow. This active pattern generally continues then through the weekend and into next week, with there being near-daily rainfall chances through some part of the eastern US all the way through the end of the week next week. Temperatures, meanwhile, look to stay warm, with cooler air into the middle of next week continuing to stay confined mostly north of the Canadian border.