Grain Comments: 03.06.25

Good morning. More green ink on the screen again this morning to start Thursday, as soybeans had a small gap-higher open last night and are leading the recovery efforts again early today. Like we said Wednesday, the odds are increasing that the markets have scored some sort of temporary bottom, with it looking more and more likely that the panic selling reaction caused by Tuesday’s tariff headlines was likely overdone. Should this be the case, we would expect the $4.75 area to be the first recovery target on May corn, with the $10.50 area being a comparable target on May soybeans; bigger picture, $5 and $11 seem to still look ceiling prices based on the way fundamentals stand today. Corn futures to start Thursday are trading either side of unchanged, soybean futures are trading 3-6 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is also near unchanged. Products are higher, soybean meal is up $1-2/ton, and soybean oil is up 10-20 points. Outside markets are mostly lower, crude oil futures are recovering a bit and up 30-40 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 430 points, and the US$ index is down another 15-20 points; the S&P500 is down 70 points and the NASDAQ is down 320 points. Gold futures are $10-15/oz lower.

Today’s Reports: Weekly Export Sales; Weekly Jobless Claims

• Deliveries were again active for Thursday; according to the CME Group, there were 444 contracts of soybean meal deliveries, 195 contracts of soybean oil, 8 contracts of rice, 83 contracts of corn, 26 contracts of KC wheat, and 220 contracts of soybeans.

• This morning’s weekly export sales report for the week ending February 27th is expected to show corn sales in a range of 700k – 1.0 mil mt’s, soybean sales in a range of 300k – 500k mt’s, and wheat sales in a range of 225k – 450k mt’s. 2025/26 corn sales are seen between 0 and 100k mt’s, while beans are seen between 0 – 50k mt’s and wheat is seen between 0 – 75k mt’s.

• The latest news on the tariff front with Canada and Mexico has President Trump and his team considering exemptions for certain ag products, in a move that would seemingly be similar to the delay on automotive imports announced yesterday. Speaking to Bloomberg reporters, Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins mentioned things like potash and fertilizers as possibilities, but said the bottom line was the decision was up to Trump and did not give a lot of other details.

• Private agribusiness consultancy Celeres lowered its estimate of Brazil’s 2024/25 soybean production yesterday by about 2.5 mmt’s to 171.6 mmt’s; the figure would still be an all-time record, but the group indicated that reductions were due to hot/dry weather conditions in the south and some of the center-south growing areas. The group also said they estimate soybean exports in the season at 107 mmt’s, which would be up about 8 mmt’s from last year.

• Mexico’s Senate voted 97-16 on Wednesday in favor of a bill backed by President Sheinbaum that would ban the production of GMO corn crops. In a press release, sources from the Senate said Mexico would “promote conditions for traditional crops with native seeds for the optimal use of land free of genetically modified corn crops.”

• Aside from news related to tariffs/trade, focus in the financial world will largely lie in Europe on Thursday, as policymakers from the European Central Bank are widely expected to trim the country’s lending rate for the sixth time since last June. Unrelatedly, EU leaders are also holding an emergency summit this week to discuss defense and defense spending following the US’s abrupt end of military aid to Ukraine.

• Argentina saw more heavy rains in the south of the country on Wednesday, though the bulk of the precip was largely south of the main growing regions; totals ranged from 0.1″ to 2″ generally, thought a pocket further to the east saw totals of 4-6″. Southwest Brazil saw some light/spotty showers, but otherwise conditions here were largely the same as prior days.

• Five-day forecasts through the weekend and into the first part of next week show continued rains of 1-3″ through Argentina’s Ag Belt, while northern areas and into southern Brazil look to see just light precip if anything. The extended forecast into mid-month has continued to shift around a bit, with this morning’s output still showing a return to normal moisture throughout most of Brazil, but Argentina is now also seen staying well-watered in the period, which is a noted shift from yesterday.

• Snowfall totals in the US over the last 48 hours favored the western Corn Belt and the northern Midwest, with the heaviest totals of 8-12″ being observed through southeast MN and into northern WI and the U.P. Generally speaking, the western Corn Belt picked up 1-6″, while the eastern Corn Belt saw a lesser 1-2″. Further to the south, rainfall totals of 0.5-1.5″ were observed from E TX/OK all the way to the East Coast in the same period.