Grain Comments: 03.14.25

Good morning. Happy Friday. Ag markets are mixed to lower to start wrapping up the week, with corn being the downside leader on further position squaring by the funds. Spot futures are just below 4.60 this morning, with the bull camp needing to see the market hold the 4.55 area today to keep the charts from looking downright ugly again going into next week; otherwise, should this level fail, it would seem likely that prices would head for a retest of the recent lows in the low-4.40’s area at some point next week. Bigger picture, we continue to see trade as being largely rangebound until either more is known about production in Brazil and Argentina, or more is known about the acreage mix and planting weather for the US this spring. Corn futures to start Friday are 1-4 cents lower, soybean futures are trading either side of unchanged, and the Chicago wheat market is down 1-2 cents. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down $1-2/ton, and soybean oil is up 10-15 points. Outside markets are mixed/higher, crude oil futures are up 60-70 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 270 points, and the US$ index is down 25 points. The S&P500 is up 60 points and the NASDAQ is up 270 points also. Gold futures have again made new contract highs overnight, and are up $15-20/oz this morning.

Today’s Reports: CFTC Commitment of Traders

• End of week deliveries from the CME Group included 125 contracts of soybean meal assigned for delivery, 24 contracts of soybean oil, 10 contracts of rice, 11 contracts of KC wheat, 30 contracts of soybeans, 4 contracts of Chicago wheat, and 10 contracts of mini-sized Chicago wheat.

• Despite production cuts from the Rosario Grains Exchange yesterday, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) did not follow suit in their weekly update, and maintained estimates of 49.6 mmt’s for soybeans and 49.0 mmt’s for corn; conditions were similar to last week also, with 74% of the soybean crop rated good/excellent (+1% from last week), and 77% of the corn crop rated in the same category (unchanged from last week). The report also showed corn harvest at 8.1% complete, which was an increase of just 1.4% on the week.

• We briefly mentioned this yesterday morning, but much of the price action in the meal market yesterday and last night has been the result of a short-lived port worker strike in Argentina, which sources say was officially ended on Thursday. The two sides (union SOEA and biodiesel firm Explora) are now scheduled to meet Monday afternoon to further discuss a longer term solution.

• Lawmakers in the EU have warned members of the animal feed industry to prepare for potential supply challenges as the trade war between them and the US expands; the bloc plans to targets imports of soybeans, which are key protein ingredient for animal feed. In the 2023/24 marketing year, the EU imported 253k mt’s of US soybeans.

• Brazil’s trade chamber Camex on Thursday announced plans to eliminate import taxes on certain food products to further try and curb rising inflation. Brazil’s Vice President was quoted as saying “these are emergency actions to reduce taxes and reduce food costs.” The new measures are set to go into effect today, and will go on for as long as necessary according to a statement.

• Equity markets on Friday will have their attention on an afternoon spending bill vote that will work to potentially avoid a government shutdown on Saturday; New York lawmaker Chuck Schumer indicated that he will vote to support the bill despite strong opposition, as a government shutdown would only “further empower President Trump and Elon Musk.” Schumer will need other democratic Senators to also vote to approve the bill for it to ultimately pass.

• In Canada, former head of the Central Bank of both Canada and Britain Mark Carney will be sworn in as the next Canadian Prime Minister later today, which puts him the driver’s seat to deal with US President Trump’s escalating trade war. As we mentioned previously, how long Carney’s Liberal party is in power is up for debate though, as snap elections are expected to be held in the weeks ahead.

• Weather in South America was largely as expected on Thursday, with Argentina seeing limited rainfall and Brazil seeing improved moisture in the south-central part of the country. Forecasts broadly show a continuation of this pattern through the weekend and into next week, which has been the forecast solution for the next several days. Temperatures have trended warmer this week, and are expected to be above average throughout the bulk of both countries through next week.

• A fast-moving low pressure system is expected to bring potentially severe storms and wind to the upper Midwest through the night tonight and into Saturday morning, with winter storm warnings in place for the eastern part of the Dakota’s and western MN. Rainfall through the weekend is estimated in a range of 1-3″ throughout the southeast and mid-south, while a boarder area is expected to see rainfall of a half inch to an inch. Wind gusts could possibly exceed 50-60+ mph.