Grain Comments: 03.19.25

Good morning. More choppy, small ranging trade at the CBOT to start Wednesday, as an overnight selloff in the wheat market failed just after 2am central time, bringing prices back closer to unchanged in early morning trade this morning. So long as talks are ongoing regarding the war and Ukraine, we would assume the wheat market remains the leader in either direction at least in the very short term, as headlines will continue to have an impact on day-to-day price action. Otherwise, traders will keep X’ing off days on the calendar until the end-of-month acreage report, which appears to be the next big fundamental market mover. Stay aware of headline risk, and don’t get lulled to sleep by the seemingly uneventful trade of the past couple days. Corn futures to start mid-week are trading a half cent to a penny lower, soybean futures are trading near a penny higher, and the Chicago wheat market is also around a penny higher. Products are quiet, soybean meal and soybean oil are both trading either side of unchanged. Outside markets are mixed but also quiet; crude oil futures are down 10-15 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 70 points, and the US$ index is up 30-40 points. The S&P500 is up 15 points and the NASDAQ is up 75 points. Gold futures are quietly lower but again made new contract highs earlier last night.

Today’s Reports: EIA Weekly Ethanol Production/Energy Stocks; Fed Interest Rate Decision

• This morning’s weekly ethanol production report from the EIA for the week ending March 14th is expected to show daily production in the week in a range of 1.052 to 1.081 mil bbls, while stocks in the week are seen between 26.80 and 27.50 mil bbls. Both figures, on average, would be similar to last week, with traders seeing stocks likely to remain at elevated levels.

• S&P Global (formerly the Informa Group) on Tuesday released updated US 2025 acreage figures; the group sees corn planted area at 94.3 mil acres (up 800k from previous est) and sees soybean planted area at 83.3 mil acres (unchanged from previous est). Notably, the group also trimmed its cotton acre forecast by 250k acres to 10.2 mil acres, which would be down nearly 10% from last year. Their wheat acre estimate was also lowered 500k acres to 46.6 mil.

• According to the European Commission, soft wheat exports in the current season started July 1 have reached 14.9 mmt’s as of Monday, which is down from nearly 23 mmt’s in the same period last year. The commission notes that due to technical issues, the data remains incomplete for some countries going as far back as the start of the 2023/24 marketing year.

• Recently released customs data out of China for the combined Jan/Feb period show corn imports over the two month span down nearly 100% from last year, and at the lowest level since 2017/18 at 180k tons; wheat imports were seen down a similar 96% from last year at 110k tons. And despite the pessimism around Chinese soybean imports, data actually shows a more than 4% increase in the period from last year to 13.6 mmt’s.

• Speaking at an energy conference earlier this week, the CEO of Darling Ingredients Inc., a US-based company that process used cooking oils and other animal by-products, said he expects the US EPA will make a ruling on biofuel blending targets for 2025 and 2026 sometime in April or May, adding that any increase in the mandate will be “really positive” for his company and others. The EPA did not immediately respond to a request for comment according to sources familiar.

• President Trump and Russian President Putin spoke by phone for more than 90 minutes on Tuesday regarding the war in Ukraine and a possible ceasefire. As was the case the last time the two talked, it appeared Putin agreed in principle to stop attacking energy and infrastructure facilities, but stopped short of agreeing to any actual 30-day ceasefire; just hours after the meeting ended though, both sides accused each other of launching airstrikes that targeted the previously mentioned infrastructure. It is unclear this morning exactly what the next steps are, with Ukrainian President Zelensky telling reporters yesterday he’d like to be briefed by Trump on the conversation.

• The financial world will have its attention on this afternoon’s interest rate decision from the US Federal Reserve, which is expected at 1pm central time. Though there currently exists a 99% chance that rates will remain unchanged this month, traders and economists will be anxious to hear what chairman Jerome Powell has to say regarding future policy decisions, as most feel another quarter-point cut is still likely between now and June despite inflation showing signs of possibly ticking back higher.

• We briefly mentioned this yesterday, but if you are a producer, the sign-up period for the $10 bil USD in economic assistance from the USDA begins today, Wednesday the 19th, and runs through August 15th. As a reminder, the payment rates are $42.91/acre for corn acres, $29.76/acre for soybean acres, and $30.69/acre for wheat acres. Also of note, some producers may receive pre-filled applications from the USDA if they had already previously reported their acres.

Good rains fell across the bulk of southern Brazil’s growing regions on Tuesday, which will be of great benefit to the developing safrinha corn crop. Further south in Argentina, mostly dry conditions were again observed, which the forecasts generally expect will remain the case through the rest of this week and weekend in the southern and eastern parts of the country. However, rains are expected to return by early next week, which keeps concern levels low despite temperatures that look to remain mostly above average to well above average in some places over the next 5-10 days