Grain Comments: 04-10-2023

Good morning:

Russian officials are again raising concerns over the Black Sea grain export deal, continually making sure the rest of the parties never get too comfortable. Meanwhile, corn rallies will likely be held in check with Midwest planting likely firing up in a big way during a warm and dry week.

The Plains and Midwest were dry over the holiday weekend and remain so this week, until rains move back into the north Thursday/Friday; 6–10-day maps favor the drier side with 11–15-day maps wetter, though nothing extreme either way. Temps will be warm this week, cooler for the 6-10 days, then forecasts are varied past that but still generally favoring the cool side.

Much of today’s session will be spent getting positions in place for tomorrow’s monthly WASDE report. For the most part trade is expecting a few changes to US balance sheets as once again only demand will be altered. Corn and wheat ending stocks are expected to be mostly steady from last month. There are thoughts soybean carryout could tighten given our ongoing export demand and the lower-than-expected stocks on March 1st. Most interest will again fall on South America to see if trade alters its crop estimates. We continue to see reductions to Argentine production from several groups while others have leveled out their crop projections. More interest may fall on the Brazil crops where higher crop estimates have been projected in recent weeks, with quite a few above the last USDA projections. While trade will position itself for this report today, others are more interested in US weather conditions, and that is likely right where focus will go after this data is released. We are now at the point where planting starts to move into the heart of the Corn Belt and where progress becomes more of a market factor. Now is when any delays will have more of an influence on price discovery.

Have a great day!