Grain Comments: 04.10.25

Good morning. Wild trade in the broader commodity space has mostly continued to start Thursday, as equity markets are correcting a bit following one of the biggest daily up moves of all-time on Wednesday. As has been the case all week, grain and soy futures have continued to be impressively resilient, and are once again seemingly swimming upstream this morning to trade in the green. For today’s trade, macro headlines will briefly cede dominance of the news cycle to the April WASDE report at mid-morning, but as there is not a lot of change from last month expected in the data set, the markets will still likely be uber-sensitive to tariff headlines, with anything on that front presumably quickly taking back control of prices should it occur. Corn futures to start Thursday are trading 2-3 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 6-7 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is up 1-2 cents. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up $2-3/ton, and soybean oil is down 30-35 points. Outside markets are mostly lower, crude oil futures are down $1.80-1.90/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 520 points, and the US$ index is down 90-100 points. The S&P500 is down 90 points and the NASDAQ is down 380 points. Gold futures are $40-50/oz higher.

Today’s Reports: Conab Monthly Supply and Demand; Monthly Inflation/CPI; Weekly Export Sales; Weekly Jobless Claims; April WASDE

• This morning’s weekly export sales report for the week ending April 3rd is expected to show corn sales for the week in a range of 700k-1.3 mil mt’s, soybean sales in a range of 200k-700k mt’s, and wheat sales in a range of (100k)-400k mt’s. New crop sales are expected between 0-150k mt’s for corn, 0-50k mt’s for soybeans, and 0-200k mt’s for wheat.

• For this morning’s WASDE report, due out at 11am central time, traders expect old crop corn and soybean ending stocks to come in fairly close to the March figures, at 1.510 bil bu’s and 379 mil bu’s respectively; wheat stocks are also seen similar to last month at 825 mil bu’s. At the world level, traders see global corn stocks at 288.2 mmt’s, while global soybean stocks are seen at 122.1 mmt’s and wheat stocks are seen at 260.4 mmt’s.

• South American production estimate updates also look to be rather minimal, as traders see estimates for both corn and soybean production in Argentina likely coming in slightly lower on the month to 49.3 mmt’s for corn and 48.8 mmt’s for soybeans. In Brazil, corn production is also seen declining slightly to 125.9 mmt’s, while soybean production is seen ticking up just a hair to 169.1 mmt’s.

• For this morning’s monthly Conab update, traders expect numbers that are similarly unchanged month/month as to what the USDA is looking for, with Brazilian corn production seen at 123.43 mmt’s (122.8 last month) and soybean production seen at 167.8 mmt’s (167.4 last month). Separately, but in he same region of the world, the Rosario Grain Exchange on Wednesday raised their estimate of corn production in Argentina by 4.0 mmt’s to 48.5 mmt’s, while also lowering soybean production by 1.0 mmt to 45.5 mmt’s.

• Also out of Argentina overnight is news of another port strike, as union members have announced plans to strike against government policies beginning at midnight on Thursday and lasting 24 hours. According to a source, ships will be unable to dock at the Rosario port on Thursday, but ships that are already docked will be allowed to load, but will not be allowed to subsequently set sail.

• Data from Malaysia’s Palm Oil Industry Regulator on Wednesday showed palm oil stocks in the country posted their first monthly gain in the last 6 months, registering at 1.56 mil tons (+3.5%). Data showed production was up nearly 17% at 1.39 mil tons, while exports were up 0.9% at 1.01 mil tons. Imports in the month were also the highest since June of 2023 at 121,886 tons. Said a trader, “Indonesia’s export levies were lower in March, so it made sense to bring in Indonesian palm oil.”

• We don’t have a lot of new details this morning on top of what was reported yesterday afternoon regarding Trump’s 90-day tariff pause. The pause does not apply to China, with their tariff rate growing to 125% at midnight last night, while the baseline 10% reciprocal tariff on all other countries will also remain in effect during the 90-day period. China raised tariffs on US goods to 84%, with traders now watching to see what the next headline will be on the situation.

• Forecasts for the US trended marginally drier overnight last night for the eastern US, but otherwise were again little changed into the weekend and first part of next week. Week two precip maps are still a mixed bag, with generally drier conditions seen in the west and disagreement on above or below average precip chances in the east. Temperatures also trended cooler over the last 24 hours, with both the 0-5 and 5-10 day maps now showing lingering cool air in the east though the end of next week.