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Grain Comments: 04-12-2023

The April WASDE report contained little fresh news for the market and contained no major surprises. The only significant changes were to the Argentine crops but even these were within trade estimate ranges. Now that this report is behind us trade will already start to focus on the May update. This will be one of the most watched supply and demand reports of the year as it gives us our first official look at new crop balance sheets. Trade will take the acreage data from the March intentions and combine them with trend yields and demand to form their initial expectations. While many traders and analysts have done this already, now is when we get an indication of what the USDA is thinking. These numbers are more accurate than what the Outlook Forum predicted in February. The most interest is falling on soybeans to see if we can produce enough to allow a build in reserves and move the market away from a rationing situation. There is less concern in corn as the acreage estimate of 92 million and trend yield would give the US a 2023/24 carryout of 2 billion bu. 

 

Highlights

* Weak currencies attract importers

* Currency more of a factor for wheat

* US renewable diesel industry at 61% of capacity 

* Capacity expected to expand with elevated crush

* Brazil Safrinha crop reported as “very good” 

* Only 13% of Brazil reporting less than normal precip

* India veg oil demand to rise 20% in next 5 years 

* Canada to expand canola rush to 17 mmt annually  

* Canada crush capacity now at 11.3 mmt

* Active planting reported across the US  

 

Corn

* US carryout steady at 1.342 bbu

* Lower imports negate lower industrial use

* World ending stocks 295.4 mmt

* Brazil crop 125 mmt, Arg 37 mmt

* Average market price est $6.60

 

Soybeans

* US ending stocks steady at 210 mbu

* Soybean still in rationing position

* World carryout 100.3 mmt

* USDA projects lower global crush demand

* Average market price unchanged at $14.30

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