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Grain Comments: 04-13-2026
Good morning.
Monday ag trade at the CBOT is mixed, with wheat leading the charge being higher. Geopolitical tensions continue to escalate after President Trump announced a U.S. naval blockade of Iran-linked vessels transiting the Strait. Energy markets have reacted sharply to the news, with crude oil futures trading up more than $6.00/barrel. Corn futures to start the week are trading 2-3 cents higher, soybean futures are trading unchanged to a penny lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 10-12 cents higher.
CFTC Commitment of Traders data released Friday showed that in the week ending April 7th, managed money traders were sellers of 49,342 contracts of corn (+218,632), sellers of 23,776 contracts of soybeans (+189,630) and sellers of 14,276 contracts of Chicago wheat (-5,633); in the products, funds sold 6,393 contracts of meal (+93,540) and bought 14,873 contracts of oil (+150,682).
Ukrainian APK-Inform agriculture consultancy has revised Ukraine’s grain harvest for 2026 to 58.2 MMT, which is down from the previous outlook of 58.6 MMT. This compares to 61.1 MMT harvested in 2025. Grain exports for the current season were also trimmed back from 40.2 MMT to 38.2 MMT due to a sharp decline in their wheat export forecast.
Palm oil imports for India in March dropped nearly 19% month on month, hitting a three-month low. The decline is being attributed to a rally in tropical oil prices, which have followed energy prices, causing refiners to hold back on purchases.
Brazil’s ethanol sector is aiming to boost output pending the government’s increase of the legal mix of ethanol blended with gas from 30% up to 32% later this year. A higher blending requirement would push production to record levels, increasing the share of both sugarcane and corn processed into biofuel production in Brazil.
The Midwest can expect scattered showers throughout the week, with a potential cold front moving in over the weekend. Brazil saw limited rains over the weekend and much of the safrinha corn belt is forecast to receive limited rainfall in the coming days. Argentina experienced minimal rainfall in the northern regions over the weekend and will see a similar pattern to start off the week, with showers largely benefiting the later planted crop.
Have a great day.
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