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Grain Comments: 04-23-2024

Good morning.

Not much turn-around Tuesday so far in the overnight trade, as Monday’s gains have not been given back to this point. Wheat futures continue to chug along, as yesterday afternoon’s further decline in US winter wheat conditions gave the trade another reason to hit the buy orders early Tuesday morning. Key for today will be whether gains can be held on to throughout the day, or if selling emerges during the day session. Corn futures are unchanged to a penny lower, soybean futures are down 1-2 cents, and the Chicago wheat market is up 2-4 cents. Products are lower, soybean meal is down around $1/ton, and soybean oil is trading 10-15 points lower. Outside markets are mostly lower, crude oil futures are trading 50-60 cents/bbl lower after being around $1 higher early last night, the Dow Jones index is unchanged, and the US$ index is down 10 points.

As of April 21st, US producers have planted 12% of the corn crop, up 6% from last week. The five-year average for this week is 10%, while we were 12% complete this week last year. Of note, IL is 11% done, IA is 13% and IN is just 2% done. TX is 68% complete, NC is 51%, and MO is 47%.

Soybeans are 8% planted as of April 21, up from 3% last week and equal to last year’s pace at this time. The five-year average for this week is just 4% complete. Of note, IL is 11% done, IA is 8% done, and IN is just 2% complete. AR is 43% done, and LA is 42% done.

Spring wheat planting progress was seen at 15%, compared to 7% last week. And winter wheat conditions in the g/ex category were seen at 50%, compared to 55% last week. Trade was looking for 54%.

Otherwise, newswires are mostly quiet overnight. Traders continue to watch for developments out of the Middle East, with no new news coming out in the last 24 hours there for the most part.

Producers were back in the fields yesterday afternoon across Central IL before they likely get rained out again Tuesday. It is still far too early to be concerned about planting delays, but near weekly showers/storms have caused early wetness problems in some areas.

Brazilian ethanol producer Raizen SA has made the first shipment of Brazilian sugarcane-based ethanol to LanzaJet Inc, shipping data shows. According to the data, a ship carrying roughly 25 mil liters of ethanol traveled from Brazil’s main port to Savannah, GA, near where the LanzaJet plant is located.

Financial markets will be mostly quiet again data-wise on Tuesday; A slew of minor business readings will be released this morning, with most of the important data seen coming from individual corporate earnings reports.

Rains are falling this morning across parts of Iowa and Missouri, with a small system expected to make its way East into Illinois through the day Tuesday. Both the EU and the GFS models were wetter overnight than yesterday in the one-week period, and both have added much-needed moisture for the Western Plains.

The GFS has trended drier in the two-week period, though the more accurate of late EU model remains with moisture through most of the Central US. Confidence is minimal in a Spring forecast beyond 10 days, so this will need monitoring.

Not a lot of changes are seen to the temperature forecast; warm air makes its way East by the end of the week this week, with slightly above normal temps then seen for most of the US next week. Long range models have also trended warmer into the second week of May overnight.

Also, not a lot of change to the South American forecast overnight. Rains are limited to a small pocket of NE Argentina and far Southern Brazil, while the rest of the growing area will be dry over the next week to 10 days.

Heat is still advertised for most of South/Central Brazil, which will have an adverse impact on safrinha corn that is in the pollinating stage. The South American corn crop is not out of the woods yet as it pertains to weather risks.

Have a great day!

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