Grain Comments: 04-25-2023

Good morning:

Front-end Chicago wheat contracts are trading at their lowest levels since various points in the summer of 2021, despite the Kremlin continuing to voice its displeasure over the Black Sea grain deal and Ukraine calling for increased pressure on Russia; rain finally appears on the way for a parched U.S. winter wheat crop, rated historically low at this point per the USDA.

Rains are still scattered and light while developing in the southern Plains, but good coverage is expected today and tomorrow in much of KS, OK, and the panhandles; precipitation will shift north Thursday through Saturday, with some heavy amounts likely in MN and surroundings as well, looking lighter or most of the rest of the Plains and belt now for the next five days. Forecasts are clearly drier overall than that, with temps still on the cool side of normal. • Rains favored center-south Brazil over the past 24 hours and remain heavy there through the northeast through Saturday, aiding dry safrinha corn areas.

While planting did progress across the United States last week, advances were less than trade was expecting. The US corn crop is now 14% seeded, up from 8% from last week and ahead of the 11% average rate for this time of year. Trade was expecting planting to be further along though, with some thinking nearly 23% of the crop was in the ground. The wet, cold conditions across much of the Corn Belt have farmers waiting to get started on planting, even in some regions where planting was expected to have progressed. The US corn crop is also 3% emerged. Soybean planting also advanced in the week but same as in corn came in under the average trade guess. A reported 9% of the US soybean crop was seeded as of Sunday evening, over twice the normal 4% that is usually done at this time. Planting was also slower on the spring wheat crop with just 5% of the crop, which is well behind the normal 12% for this date. The greatest concern on spring wheat is in the Upper Plains where heavy snow cover remains. Flooding from this snow melt is also reducing planting progress. The weekly crop report also showed another 1-point decline in the winter wheat crop, putting it at 26% Good/Excellent.

Have a great day!