Grain Comments: 04.25.24

Good morning. Corn and soybeans are quiet/lower to start Thursday at the CBOT, while the Chicago wheat market is up another few pennies after trading 10 cents higher again last night. The July contract is up nearly 50 cents this week, with the million dollar question being how many shorts have the funds bought back in recent days; and furthermore, will this lead to spillover short covering in the corn and soybean markets? Corn futures are unchanged to a penny lower, soybean futures are down 5-6 cents, and the Chicago wheat market is up a penny. Products are mixed/lower, soybean meal is down $2-3/ton, and soybean oil is unchanged. Outside markets are mixed/lower, crude oil futures are up 5-10 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 225 points, and the US$ index is down 20 points.

Today’s Reports: US Weekly Export Sales; US Q1 GDP; US Weekly Jobless Claims

• This morning’s weekly export sales report is expected to show corn sales for the week ending April 18th between 400k – 900k mt’s; soybean sales between 300k – 600k mt’s; and wheat sales between (100k) – 100k mt’s.

• The USDA’s Cold Storage Report for March showed total red meat supplies in freezers were down 1% from February, and down 12% from last year. Beef was down 3% from last month and 10% from last year, while pork was up 1% from last month but down 13% from last year. Pork belly stocks were up 18% from last month, but down 2% from last year.

• Yesterday’s EIA report showed crude oil stocks were down by 6.4 mil bbls from the previous week, which was the second largest weekly decline of this year. Stocks were seen at 453.625 mil bbls.

• The USDA ag attaché in Egypt raised Egyptian wheat imports in the 2024/25 season to 11.2 mmt’s, which would be up 2% from this past year. They attribute the rise to population growth, as well as foreign currency availability in Egyptian banks.

• According to a report from SovEcon, Russian wheat exports are seen reaching 4.6 mmt’s in April, which would be a record for the month. Russia exported 4.4 mmt’s in April 2023, and exports 2.9 mmt’s for the month on average.

• China’s Minister of Ag and Rural affairs on Thursday announced China had 39.92 mil sows at the end of March, down 3.6% from the previous quarter, and down 7.3% from March of 2023.

• This morning’s Q1 GDP data is expected to show a 2.5% annual increase, while consumer spending is seen edging up by 3%. Weekly jobless data is seen similar to last week, with economists seeing initial claims at 214k, and continuing claims at 1.814 mil.

• The US Midwest braces for another round of storms this weekend, with the radar showing thunderstorm activity across parts of KS/NE and into MO/IA this morning. Storms will make their way East, with a subsequent low pressure trough bringing yet another round of possibly severe weather into the area early next week.

• The EU/GFS models are in fairly good agreement on locations of rainfall, with both seeing the heaviest totals into next Wednesday in KS/OK/AR/MO. This area is forecast to receive upwards of 6+” in some areas, with local flooding likely. The remainder of the Central Midwest sees 1-3″ likely for most everywhere West of Indiana.

• Models continue to see a drier trend emerging for the Eastern Midwest in the week two period, but confidence this far out is low. Temps remain slightly cooler for another couple days, before a broad warm up occurs this weekend for almost the whole of the US into next week.