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Grain Comments: 05-07-2024

The grains have settled back this morning but not before posting fresh highs last night, amid heavy volume; we shall see later this morning if upward momentum can resume this week. Wet Midwest weather continues to slow planting this week and should produce more disappointing corn and bean progress figures next Monday—though a window could open after that.

Statistics Canada this morning is expected to report all-wheat stocks as of the end of March at 12.2 MMT; that would be down from 13.9 MMT last year. Canola stocks are seen at 8.3 MMT, up from 7.033 at the end of March 2023.

National corn planting progress advanced just nine points this week, to 36% complete as of Sunday night; that’s now behind 42% last year and the 39% five-year average pace. Emergence of the crop rose from 7% to 12% this week, still ahead of 10% LY and the 9% 5YA. Soybean planting advanced form 18% to 25% done, behind 30% LY but ahead of the 21% 5YA, with emergence there initially reported at 9%, ahead of 7% LY and the 4% 5YA. Spring wheat planting rose from 34% to 47% done, up from 21% LY and the 31% 5YA, with emergence there at 12%, up from 5% last week, 4% last year, and the 9% 5YA. Winter wheat heading went from 30% to 43%, up from 34% LY and the 32% 5YA, with condition ratings of that crop rebounding a point to an even 50% good/excellent, vs 29% LY and the 45% 5YA figure.

Heavy rains fell from the SD/MN border down through western IA and into MO last night, with the heavy line of showers and thunderstorms moving through the ECB still this morning; more is on the way for the eastern half of the belt today through Thursday, with action finally spottier Friday through the weekend. 6-10 day maps continue to run drier, back to normal or above precipitation for the 11-15, with temperatures warm right up into late May.

Argentine rains continue in the northeast going forward, drier for most of the country for harvest; heavy southern BRZ rains finally look to move out slightly by the 6-10 day but heavy flooding and crop damage continues there.

Have a great day!


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