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Grain Comments: 05-09-2023

Corn and soybeans were 4-6 cents lower overnight and wheat was down 8-10 cents as long liquidation and fresh buying took place. The US dollar firmed while the equities and energies were weak.

 

Today’s Reports:

 

  • US debt ceiling talks showing little progress
  • US dollar -9% since Sep; -1.1% in past 6 sessions
  • No vessels being inspected for the Black Sea

 

As expected, a large amount of planting took place across the majority of the US last week. As of Sunday evening, 49% of the US corn crop was seeded, just below the average trade guess but ahead of the 41% average volume for this date. The only state that is showing much of a delay is North Dakota with just 1% complete compared to the average 11%. The corn crop is also 12% emerged, 1% ahead of normal. Soybean planting for the week totaled 35% complete, well ahead of the normal 21%. The soybean crop is 9% emerged with 4% being the average rate. Spring wheat planting came in at 24% finished, well ahead of last week but still behind the normal 38%. The winter wheat crop rating improved 3 points on the week and is now 29% Good/Excellent. The US pasture rating is split with 33% Good/Excellent, but 37% Poor/Very Poor. Trade will soon start to shift its attention away from planting and more towards crop development and growth. There are no immediate concerns over these, but the building El Nino weather pattern may start changing some of the long-range models. This is a development that will be monitored more closely over the next several weeks and throughout the growing season.

 

Highlights

* Brazil starting to turn dry

* Brazil temps above average

* Fed not ruling out additional rate hikes

* No indication of interest rates declining

* Lack of Brazil storage lowers revenue

* $6.1 billion lost due to forced sales in Brazil

* Global interest on developing El Nino grows

* China buying domestic commodities for reserves

* China attempting to support domestic markets

* Barge freight continues to soften

 

Corn

* Planting delays in Upper Plains

* Ukraine exports to slow

* Global production forecast rising

* UN projects world carryout at 288.2 mmt

* UN carryout +3 mmt due to large EU crop

 

Soybeans

* US crush margin depressed but firming

* Crush in rest of world improves

* Malaysia palm oil stocks 11 month low

* Fall prices favor US over Brazil

* US still not seeing new crop demand

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