Good morning.
Ag markets are seeing follow-through selling this morning to get the last trading day of the week started but are generally at or near the lows made on Thursday in most cases. President Trump has departed China with little in the way of new ag agreements or really any sort of hard deals of any kind, which has led to the ongoing removal of premium in the space this morning. Both sides touted the meetings as new steps in the right direction in regard to the relationship between the two, but otherwise, it seems from a high-level view that the overall situation in the markets post the meeting is rather similar to it was before they occurred. Corn futures to start Friday morning are trading 4-5 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 8-9 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 7-8 cents lower.
This morning’s NOPA soybean crush report for the month of April – due out at 11am central time this morning – is expected to show US crush in the month at 214.030 mil bu, which if accurate, would be down some 5% from the March figure but up 12% from April of 2025. NOPA members account for more than 99% of soybean crushed in the US.
Touched on this yesterday afternoon, but the Wheat Quality Council, following three days of tours covering near 400 fields, said on Thursday that they see Kansas wheat yields this year coming in at a three-year low of just 38.9 bu/acre, which is above the USDA’s latest estimate of 37 bu/acre but down from the tour’s estimate last year of 53 bu/acre. The group added that likely higher than normal abandonment rates (maybe as high as 20%) made yield forecasting difficult from the standpoint that it’s hard to know which fields will actually get cut.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said in their weekly crop update that soybean harvest in the country had advanced 23.5% over the last week to 58% complete, which is now 5% ahead of the five-year average. Corn harvest continues to be less of a priority, advancing just 2% on the week to 32% complete. The group made no production updates to either crop but did say in their first estimate of the year that wheat production for the 2026/27 season was expected to be down some 23% from this year’s record at just 21.3 MMTs.
China’s government said on Thursday it was lowering the country’s normal breeding sow herd by some 4% to an inventory of around 37.5 million head as part of a broader plan to control production capacity and manage oversupply amid weak demand that has driven domestic prices to multi-year lows. The government added that this target would then be adjusted dynamically based on changes in production efficiency and consumption.
The USDA’s weekly grain transportation report showed total barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending May 9th at just 636k tons, which was down just over 10% from the week prior. Corn shipments in the week at 436k tons were down 4.6% and soybean shipments in the week at 179k tons were down nearly 25%. STL barge freight rates were quoted at $18.07/short ton, down 16 cents from the week prior.
The European model’s weekend rainfall outlook this morning has moisture favoring generally the northern and northwestern portions of the Corn Belt the next couple days, while it also sees lighter chances through the south-central part of the region during the day tomorrow. Overall, the pattern still looks to trend wetter into next week, as the eastward shift of the Bermuda High will allow Gulf moisture to easily enter the central part of the US. The key in this forecast is how far east the ridge shifts and also for how long it stays anchored off the East Coast, as this will be the source of a lot of the Corn Belt’s weather pattern into June.
Places across the Midwest will likely see some of the warmest air temperatures of the year so far over the weekend as western high pressure works east, but then look to cool back to slightly below normal (mid/upper 60’s) for a brief period early next week before again returning to above average by the end of the week. Generally speaking, the warm and wet forecast into the end of the month should be nearly ideal for early crop development in the next few weeks.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 05-15-2026
Good morning.
Ag markets are seeing follow-through selling this morning to get the last trading day of the week started but are generally at or near the lows made on Thursday in most cases. President Trump has departed China with little in the way of new ag agreements or really any sort of hard deals of any kind, which has led to the ongoing removal of premium in the space this morning. Both sides touted the meetings as new steps in the right direction in regard to the relationship between the two, but otherwise, it seems from a high-level view that the overall situation in the markets post the meeting is rather similar to it was before they occurred. Corn futures to start Friday morning are trading 4-5 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 8-9 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 7-8 cents lower.
This morning’s NOPA soybean crush report for the month of April – due out at 11am central time this morning – is expected to show US crush in the month at 214.030 mil bu, which if accurate, would be down some 5% from the March figure but up 12% from April of 2025. NOPA members account for more than 99% of soybean crushed in the US.
Touched on this yesterday afternoon, but the Wheat Quality Council, following three days of tours covering near 400 fields, said on Thursday that they see Kansas wheat yields this year coming in at a three-year low of just 38.9 bu/acre, which is above the USDA’s latest estimate of 37 bu/acre but down from the tour’s estimate last year of 53 bu/acre. The group added that likely higher than normal abandonment rates (maybe as high as 20%) made yield forecasting difficult from the standpoint that it’s hard to know which fields will actually get cut.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said in their weekly crop update that soybean harvest in the country had advanced 23.5% over the last week to 58% complete, which is now 5% ahead of the five-year average. Corn harvest continues to be less of a priority, advancing just 2% on the week to 32% complete. The group made no production updates to either crop but did say in their first estimate of the year that wheat production for the 2026/27 season was expected to be down some 23% from this year’s record at just 21.3 MMTs.
China’s government said on Thursday it was lowering the country’s normal breeding sow herd by some 4% to an inventory of around 37.5 million head as part of a broader plan to control production capacity and manage oversupply amid weak demand that has driven domestic prices to multi-year lows. The government added that this target would then be adjusted dynamically based on changes in production efficiency and consumption.
The USDA’s weekly grain transportation report showed total barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending May 9th at just 636k tons, which was down just over 10% from the week prior. Corn shipments in the week at 436k tons were down 4.6% and soybean shipments in the week at 179k tons were down nearly 25%. STL barge freight rates were quoted at $18.07/short ton, down 16 cents from the week prior.
The European model’s weekend rainfall outlook this morning has moisture favoring generally the northern and northwestern portions of the Corn Belt the next couple days, while it also sees lighter chances through the south-central part of the region during the day tomorrow. Overall, the pattern still looks to trend wetter into next week, as the eastward shift of the Bermuda High will allow Gulf moisture to easily enter the central part of the US. The key in this forecast is how far east the ridge shifts and also for how long it stays anchored off the East Coast, as this will be the source of a lot of the Corn Belt’s weather pattern into June.
Places across the Midwest will likely see some of the warmest air temperatures of the year so far over the weekend as western high pressure works east, but then look to cool back to slightly below normal (mid/upper 60’s) for a brief period early next week before again returning to above average by the end of the week. Generally speaking, the warm and wet forecast into the end of the month should be nearly ideal for early crop development in the next few weeks.
Have a great day.
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