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Grain Comments: 05-21-2024

Good morning!

Wheat values are around unchanged this morning but still poised near last week’s highs, after yesterday’s rally; corn is stuck on the charts after better-than-expected planting progress yesterday; U.S. farmers are making the best of a wet spring and seeding 2024 crops in a timely fashion.

Ukraine’s state weather forecaster said that the country’s grain and oilseed crops sustained “no significant damage” from frosts in the first half of this month, seeing only minor potential yield loss for wheat, barley, and rapeseed.

National corn planting progress advanced from 49% to an even 70% complete as of Sunday night, still below 76% last year and the 71% five-year average pace; emergence of that crop rose from 23% to 40% done this week, below 46% last year but a point ahead of average. Soybean planting advanced from 35% to 52% done, behind 61% LY but ahead of the 49% 5YA, with emergence there up from 16% to 26%, behind 31% LY but ahead of the 21% 5YA. Spring wheat planting went from 61% to 79%, ahead of 57% LY and 65% 5YA, with emergence up from 25% to 43% done, ahead of 27% LY and the 33% 5YA. Winter wheat heading moved from 57% to 69% this week, up from 58% LY and 57% 5YA, with condition ratings of that crop down a point to 49% good/excellent, up from 31% LY and the 46% 5YA figure.

Rains spanned across the central/northern corn belt over the past 24 hours, heaviest from NE through IA into southern WI, and that system remains in the northern belt through today; plenty more action continues through the weekend for strong five-day forecasted totals across the Midwest. Extended maps remain on the wet side of normal but finally start to push those heavy rains out to the southeast, with drier weather moving in from the northwest by the 11-15 day in particular. Temps remain above-normal right into early June.

Argentina remains mostly dry for harvest going forward, while southern Brazil was dry yesterday, but rains return there for the rest of the week; rains will finally move out of wet southern crop areas for the 6–10-day time frame.

Our lead forecaster sees dryness in the next ten days leading to issues for up to 75% of Ukraine wheat areas and 40% of Russian winter wheat acreage.

Have a great day!

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