Grain Comments: 05.21.26

Good morning. It’s been another choppy overnight session of trade so far at the CBOT to start Thursday, with ag markets mostly lower this morning to start but well off their lows made so far on the session as an Iran uranium headline sparked a slew of buying shortly after 5am central time. We’re going to beat this like a dead horse, but we simply can’t understate how little impact the current US growing season has on price discovery today amid the ongoing situations with both China and the Middle East. Overnight CME Group margin increases reflect an opinion that headline risk likely stays elevated into the foreseeable future, which is a sentiment we’ve echoed for weeks now.

Corn futures to start Thursday are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 2-3 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 4-5 cents lower.

📅 Today’s Reports: Weekly Export Sales; Weekly Jobless Claims

• This morning’s weekly export sales report, with data for the week ending May 14th is expected to show old crop corn sales in the week between 800k-1.6 mil MTs, old crop soybean sales between 150k-450k MTs, and old crop wheat sales between 0-200k MTs. For the new crop, corn sales are seen between 150k-300k MTs, soybean sales are seen between 0-200k MTs, and wheat sales are seen between 100k-350k MTs.

• The Illinois Wheat Association on Wednesday, following a one day crop tour which scouted nearly 150 fields, said crop production potential in the state was down slightly from a year ago, estimating yields at 102.8 bu/acre. The tour typically over estimates yields due to a smaller sample size, but the number still reflects decent crop potential amid what has been a difficult growing season elsewhere. The USDA in May pegged IL wheat yields at 84 bu/acre, which would be the fourth highest figure all-time.

• Brazilian veg oil association Abiove on Wednesday raised their 2026 soybean crush forecast for the country from 62.2 MMTs previously to now 62.5 MMTs, which if accurate, would be a new record. The figure compares to 58.7 MMTs of soybeans crushed in 2025. Meanwhile, the group also adjusted its export forecast higher from 113.6 MMTs last month to now 114.1 MMTs.

• For the second time in as many weeks, China’s state grain stockpiler Sinograin said on Thursday that it would be auctioning off another 50,900 MTs of soybean supplies from it’s reserves next week on the 25th. It’s unclear whether these auctions are in an effort to clear space for the 12 MMTs of purchases already completed and now being shipped, or if the moves are in preparation for additional new business to occur in the future.

• Sources familiar with the situation have said this week that both Australia and Brazil have engaged China on allowing them to export more beef products to Beijing, as import quotas for the year for both countries are already close to being hit. The new quota system introduced at the end of 2025 would impose a 55% tariff on imports coming in from both countries as early as next month if current shipment rates continue, effectively halting the trade. Following a reinstatement of more than 400 export licenses to US companies last week, it’s unclear today how China is likely to respond to the situation.

• During meetings this week between Chinese President Xi and Russian President Putin, Xi stressed to his counterpart the importance of ending the war in the Middle East, saying it was of the “utmost urgency” that a ceasefire was reached to protect energy supply stability. It’s unclear what influence the two have on the overall situation, but both Russia and China claim alliances with Iran.

• FOMC minutes from the Fed’s most recent policy meeting clearly leaned hawkish, with many policymakers indicating a desire to remove the statement’s easing bias and also indicating that tightening could become appropriate again in the future should inflation remain well above the Fed’s 2% target. The CME’s FedWatch tool this morning indicates somewhat similar sentiment, with there now an almost 13% chance that rates go up a quarter percent at the meeting in July.

• Not a lot new this morning on the Corn Belt forecast, as models continue to show precip the rest of the week and into next week favoring areas through the southern and southeastern part of the US, with some of the southern Midwest also possibly picking up on this. The models trended wetter in the north/northwest in the extended period yesterday afternoon, but our confidence in this is not overly high amid high pressure lingering through the Hudson Bay area and around the Great Lakes.