Grain Comments: 05-23-2023

Good morning:

Wheat is rebounding slightly this morning but not before edging out new lows overnight, with the most-traded July Chicago wheat contract again dipping below the $6/bushel mark. The soybean complex remains under pressure with the overall trend still intact there. 2023 U.S. row-crop planting is meeting aggressive trade expectations with no real reason for the remainder of crops to be seeded this week under clear skies (though North Dakota remains the only real wild-card, as final planting dates approach there). Dry Midwest weather forecasts are not an issue yet but may start to catch the trade’s eye at some point, if the overall trend continues—rains are ironically stuck in the southern Plains over the next two weeks.

Rains were confined to the southern Plains again over the past 24 hours and ironically remain stuck there going forward, with heavy amounts expected in the panhandles and surroundings over the next five days, while the bulk of the Midwest stays dry. That pattern will hold through both the 6-10 and 11-15 day periods as well, with temperatures safely above-normal going forward.

Brazil will remain dry this work week before rains move into the south over the weekend, then spread through the north and northeast next week for the 6- 10-day time frame, aiding any dry safrinha corn regions there.

As expected, a large volume of planting was done across the United States last week, pushing seasonal fieldwork into its later stages. Corn planting was reported as 81% complete and emergence at 52%. Both of these are running ahead of average. The only state with a planting concern remains North Dakota with 32% of the crop in. With the insurance deadline approaching for the state, it is being questioned as to how many acres may end up unplanted this year. By using the prospective planting data North Dakota still has 2.5 million corn acres to seed. Soybean planting advanced to 66% complete and that crop is now 36% emerged, both ahead of normal as well. Spring wheat planting also made a jump on the week coming in at 64% finished. Spring wheat also 32% emerged. Recent rains have shown improvement in the winter wheat crop with a rating of 31% Good/Excellent. This is historically low, but better than at the start of the month. Trade will now show less interest in planting and more on crop conditions. Current weather is quite favorable for crops, but the long-range models are not as promising with several showing warmer temperatures and drier conditions. This is starting to allow for the addition of risk premium to the market.

Have a great day!