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Grain Comments: 06-02-2023

Good morning:

Corn dominated overnight trade volume with speculative selling weighing down the front end of that complex; it’s been a volatile week of trade after the spot July contract surged to one-month highs above the $6 per bushel mark ahead of the holiday weekend. This coming weekend will present another chance for Midwest forecasts to finally roll over, with concrete rain chances across the belt yet to arrive. Scattered rains are aiding corn and soybeans for now, and temperatures look to moderate into mid-June also.

Decent rains did reach up from the southwest over the past 24 hours, with accumulation in eastern KS and SD into much of Iowa and SE Minnesota; more chances are present for the northern belt today before rains retreat back into the SW Plains for the weekend. Extended maps continue to leave precipitation far west with the bulk of the belt dry through mid-month; temperatures remain warm for a few more days but are moving closer to normal now as the 6–10-day forecasts progress, normal-to-below for the 11–15-day time frame.

Once again, trade will be heavily interested in the weekly export sales data today as more cancellations to old crop sales of corn and soybeans are fully expected. South America continues to offer these commodities as a discount to the US and this leads to the washing out of previous bookings. China has shown the most cancellations in recent weeks but now others are joining in. The US currently has 394 million bu (mbu) of unshipped corn and 108 mbu of unshipped soybean sales on the books. We may also see wheat sales cancelled but this is more from old crop sales being pushed out to new crop delivery. Trade is also starting to show more interest in new crop sales where bookings of corn and soybeans remain light as well. Sales for 2023/24 currently total 108.4 mbu on corn and 93.8 mbu on soybeans which are historically low. A lack of Chinese demand is the primary reason for the lower sales, especially on soybeans. China continues to book large volume of soybeans from South America and is showing it will only source what it needs from the US to bridge the gap between the harvest of their crops.

 

Have a great weekend!

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