Good morning.
It’s been a quiet overnight market session across most commodities to begin wrapping up the week, with markets generally mixed and in light volume. We’re not going to completely rule out further downside follow-though today after how things have gone the last several sessions but would mention that oversold chart conditions and the sort of “blow-off” nature of yesterday’s selling would justify some sort of dead-cat bounce today should it occur. Otherwise, trader focus likely remains on the ongoing situation in the Middle East, trade relations with China, and Midwest weather forecasts, while this afternoon’s CFTC report will also likely garner a considerable amount of attention.
Corn futures to get Friday rolling are trading 2-3 cents lower, soybean futures are trading either side of unchanged, and the Chicago wheat market is trading unchanged to a penny higher.
Weekly crop data from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange in Argentina showed another somewhat slow but steady week of harvest progress; soybean planting advanced just over 7% on the week to 92% complete, while corn planting advanced nearly 6% on the week to 41% complete. Wheat planting, meanwhile, jumped 18% on the week to 32%, which is ahead of both last year and the recent five-year average. The group made no production updates to any of the crops.
China’s International Trade Council offered pushback to new 12.5% section 301 trade tariffs that the Trump administration said this week it was planning on enforcing later this year, indicating that while the leaders of the two countries touted progress following recent negotiations in Beijing, tensions and differences remain present. It’s unclear this morning what this means for either the 25 million tons of expected bean purchases or $17 billion in expected spending, but this likely helped exaggerate the selling in the soy complex on Thursday.
The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization in a monthly update this week lowered their global grain production forecast for 2026 to 2.98 billion tons, which is down around 2% from their estimate last month. The group added that wheat production was expected to reach 810.9 MMTs, which would be down nearly 4% from last year and also down some 6 million tons from the group’s May estimate.
Ag Secretary Rollins also said during a House Ag committee meeting Thursday that the USDA was close to releasing final guidance on 45Z clean fuel tax credits, stating that an announcement was “imminent.” The new regulation has been under review at the Office of Management and Budget for months now.
Weekly data from the USDA showed barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending May 30th at 608k tons, which was down 15% from the week prior. Corn shipments in the week totaled 382k tons, down 17%, and soybean shipments totaled 200k tons, down 10%. STL barge freight rates in the week were quoted at $16.32/short ton, down $1.64 from the week prior.
Weekly drought monitor data released on Thursday this week showed 27% of the US corn area in some form of drought, up 2% from the week prior, while 28% of the soybean area was experiencing drought conditions, up 1% from the week prior. Compared to last year, the corn drought percentage is up 6% and the soybean percentage is up 12%.
Weekend weather looks to favor increasing precipitation across parts of the central and eastern Midwest in the next few days, while the mid-section of the country from TX north also looks to continue seeing fairly regular rainfall. This morning’s EU model run has anywhere from a coupe tenth to upwards of 2-3″ in some pockets of rainfall possible between now and early Monday morning, with more rains/storm activity than expected into the first part of next week. By the end of the week next week, most all of the Corn Belt looks to receive some sort of measurable precipitation.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 06-05-2026
Good morning.
It’s been a quiet overnight market session across most commodities to begin wrapping up the week, with markets generally mixed and in light volume. We’re not going to completely rule out further downside follow-though today after how things have gone the last several sessions but would mention that oversold chart conditions and the sort of “blow-off” nature of yesterday’s selling would justify some sort of dead-cat bounce today should it occur. Otherwise, trader focus likely remains on the ongoing situation in the Middle East, trade relations with China, and Midwest weather forecasts, while this afternoon’s CFTC report will also likely garner a considerable amount of attention.
Corn futures to get Friday rolling are trading 2-3 cents lower, soybean futures are trading either side of unchanged, and the Chicago wheat market is trading unchanged to a penny higher.
Weekly crop data from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange in Argentina showed another somewhat slow but steady week of harvest progress; soybean planting advanced just over 7% on the week to 92% complete, while corn planting advanced nearly 6% on the week to 41% complete. Wheat planting, meanwhile, jumped 18% on the week to 32%, which is ahead of both last year and the recent five-year average. The group made no production updates to any of the crops.
China’s International Trade Council offered pushback to new 12.5% section 301 trade tariffs that the Trump administration said this week it was planning on enforcing later this year, indicating that while the leaders of the two countries touted progress following recent negotiations in Beijing, tensions and differences remain present. It’s unclear this morning what this means for either the 25 million tons of expected bean purchases or $17 billion in expected spending, but this likely helped exaggerate the selling in the soy complex on Thursday.
The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization in a monthly update this week lowered their global grain production forecast for 2026 to 2.98 billion tons, which is down around 2% from their estimate last month. The group added that wheat production was expected to reach 810.9 MMTs, which would be down nearly 4% from last year and also down some 6 million tons from the group’s May estimate.
Ag Secretary Rollins also said during a House Ag committee meeting Thursday that the USDA was close to releasing final guidance on 45Z clean fuel tax credits, stating that an announcement was “imminent.” The new regulation has been under review at the Office of Management and Budget for months now.
Weekly data from the USDA showed barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending May 30th at 608k tons, which was down 15% from the week prior. Corn shipments in the week totaled 382k tons, down 17%, and soybean shipments totaled 200k tons, down 10%. STL barge freight rates in the week were quoted at $16.32/short ton, down $1.64 from the week prior.
Weekly drought monitor data released on Thursday this week showed 27% of the US corn area in some form of drought, up 2% from the week prior, while 28% of the soybean area was experiencing drought conditions, up 1% from the week prior. Compared to last year, the corn drought percentage is up 6% and the soybean percentage is up 12%.
Weekend weather looks to favor increasing precipitation across parts of the central and eastern Midwest in the next few days, while the mid-section of the country from TX north also looks to continue seeing fairly regular rainfall. This morning’s EU model run has anywhere from a coupe tenth to upwards of 2-3″ in some pockets of rainfall possible between now and early Monday morning, with more rains/storm activity than expected into the first part of next week. By the end of the week next week, most all of the Corn Belt looks to receive some sort of measurable precipitation.
Have a great day.
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