Grain Comments: 06-09-2023

Good morning:

The soy complex is holding stronger this morning pre-USDA with supplies still a bit tighter there than in corn, despite flailing exports. The USDA is expected to again cut their Argentine crop estimates, but the Buenos Aires Exchange is now down to just 21 MMT on soybeans, six MMT below the May S&D. BRZ estimates are again seen making up part of that loss.

Scattered rains basically continue for the near future, with the heaviest action in the SW half of the belt and central/southern Plains over the next five days. Extended precipitation forecasts are varied, wettest west and southeast, with temps varied as well but generally favoring the high side of normal into late June.

The primary story in today’s trade is likely to be the release of the monthly WASDE report. It is expected that we will see more changes and interest in the old crop balance sheets for the domestic side of the report. Given the recent export pace we have seen on corn it is thought the USDA will trim demand by 25 million bu (mbu) to 50 mbu this month. It is widely believed that we will see more reductions to corn demand prior to the end of the marketing year, however. Soybean demand is expected to be trimmed by 15 mbu to 25 mbu this month as sales have slowed in recent weeks given the cheaper soybeans being offered out of South America. This would not remove the soy complex from a rationing position. No significant changes are expected to be made to new crop demand this month. The main question on the new crop is what will be done with yields as recent weather has stressed corn in some regions of the Corn Belt. Any reduction to corn yield at this point would be minimal. No changes are expected in soybean yields. The USDA may leave acreage unchanged as well until we see the revisions to planted numbers at the end of the month. On the global side all interest will again fall on South America.

 

Have a great weekend!

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