Grain Comments: 06-23-2023

Good morning:

Corn and soybeans appear to have rounded out a high ahead of the weekend—another weekend where forecasts could shift over multiple days—with decent corn belt rains finally forecasted in the short-term. Some long-term precipitation maps are looking better as well, though the massive overall El Nino-driven shift has yet to arrive. Demand numbers remain bearish as of late, with holiday-delayed export sales on tap this morning (expected to be slow), and a week before the June 30th USDA stocks and acreage.

Rain was spotty in the western corn belt and Plains again over the past 24 hours, with action lingering in the Dakotas this morning; chances remain there today before moving through the Midwest over the weekend. Coverage appears solid now for all but the far southern belt, by the time the system leaves the eastern belt early next week. Extended maps are a bit more varied today, with NWS 6-10- and 8-14-day maps showing better chances for above-normal rains throughout the Midwest, while others hold that strong precipitation to the northwest. Temperatures continue to run above normal into early July, but not to any sort of extreme.

Trade is expecting to see another slow week for export sales in the USDA data. We have not had daily sales announced in several sessions, which is not surprising given the spread between the US and other sources in the global market. For corn and soybeans all import interest that is of any volume is going to South America, mainly to Brazil. Brazil is considerably cheaper than the US on corn and soybeans through the end of summer which is when our next chance of making exports will take place. We are not seeing much interest in booking our offers for those periods though and time is starting to run out to get freight booked if it is going to happen. Trade will likely sift through the sales report rather quickly though and turn its attention right back to the weather. Outlook models are starting to show more chances of rainfall for the Corn Belt, but precipitation totals are still low compared to what is needed to replenish dry soils. Several analysts are starting to trim their crop size estimates as a result. The question is how this may impact balance sheets as demand will also be scaled back if production drops.

Have a great weekend!