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Grain Comments: 06-24-2024

Good morning.

Grain prices are mostly lower to start the last week of June and the last week of the first half of the year. Corn and wheat are lower, while the beans are mixed. The meal is mixed with bean oil lower. Cattle futures are expected to open lower due to a higher placement number on Friday’s report. Weather, first notice day for July futures, and the Friday NASS reports will be the main drivers this week.

The crop progress report will be released this afternoon. Corn and bean ratings are both expected to be down 2 to 4%. Last week’s ratings saw corn rated at 72% good to excellent. Beans were rated at 70%.

The weather forecast continues to call for better rain chances across the eastern half of the Midwest this week. Rain chances will start up tomorrow and then again over the weekend. The eastern side of Iowa and the northern half of Illinois are forecasted to see 1 to 3 inches of rain. Heavy rain fell again in the northwest corner of Iowa over the weekend. The Lake Okoboji area saw 8 inches again on Friday night. That has made 41 inches of rain for that area since April 1st. This area and the surrounding area in the Dakotas and Minnesota will see crop losses due to the heavy rains, but the total extent will be days in determining. Temps for the Midwest will moderate later this week. The extended forecast calls for above normal precipitation for most of the corn belt.

The commitment of traders’ report was delayed from Friday and will be released this afternoon. Export inspections are out this morning.

The first notice day for July futures is on Friday. July open interest for corn, beans, and wheat dropped sharply on Friday due to option expiration. July longs will be reported after the close on Thursday.

NASS will release its acreage estimates and quarterly grain stocks on Friday, June 28th at 11 am. central. The average trade estimate for corn acreage is 90.353 mln, up from 90.036 in March. Bean acres are estimated to come in near 86.753 mln., up from 86.510 in March. All wheat acres are estimated near 47.657, up from 47.498 in March. For spring wheat, the trade expects acres at 11.340 mln versus 11.335 in March.

The quarterly stocks figures for corn, beans, and wheat as of June 1st are expected to show higher stocks for all 3 versus a year ago. Corn stocks are expected near 4.873 bln., up from 4.103 last June. Bean stocks estimated at 0.962 bln., up from .796 bln. in 2023. Wheat stocks expected to come in at 684 mln. bu., up from 570 mln. last June.

The cattle on feed report last Friday afternoon showed June 1st on-feed numbers at 11.583 mln. head, basically unchanged from a year ago. Placements were 4.3% higher than a year ago, which was 6% higher than expectations.

Weather watchers are still on the lookout for the presence of La Nina and when it becomes official. NOAA stated that there is a 65% chance that La Nina starts as soon as July-September with an 85% chance that the there will be one in the November through January timeframe. The end of El Nino is helping bring more rains to the dry areas of Mexico and the Panama Canal.

India has imposed limits on the amount of wheat stocks that traders can hold in an effort to keep a lid on a recent trend of rising prices.

Have a great day.

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