Good morning.
Commodity markets are broadly lower this morning to begin wrapping up the week, driven in part by lower trade in the energy markets despite headlines this morning that a vessel had been struck with a missile near Oman. The news brings fresh doubt to what continues to be an ongoing situation, with most somewhat on edge as to just how long shipping through one of the world’s busiest water ways is going to remain functioning. Otherwise, we would expect position adjustment to be the main theme in the ag markets going into the weekend as traders prepare for Tuesday’s USDA updates.
Corn futures to start Friday morning are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 6-8 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 11-12 cents lower.
The USDA released a slew of livestock data on Thursday. First, the quarterly Hog and Pigs report showed the US hog herd as of June 1 at 73.7 million head, which was down slightly from March but nearly identical to the June figure last year. The report showed breeding inventory at 5.88 million head, which was down 1% from last year, and showed market hog inventory at 67.8 million head, which was up just fractionally from last year.
Next, monthly cold storage data showed US stocks of red meat in freezers during the month of May at 872.5 million pounds, which was down just 0.1% from the April figure but down nearly 1% from May of last year. Frozen beef supplies totaled 403 million pounds, down 1.1% from last year, while frozen pork supplies totaled 452 million pounds, up 0.3% from last year.
Lastly, monthly livestock slaughter data for May showed commercial red meat production in the US during the month at 4.10 billion pounds, which was down nearly 8% from April and down a little over 6% from May of last year. Beef production at 1.95 billion pounds was down 8% from last year, and pork production at 2.14 billion pounds was down 4% from last year.
Weekly crop data from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange showed another steady week of activity across Argentina. The report showed corn harvest advanced just 3% on the week to 52% complete, while soybean harvest has wrapped up (98% complete) and wheat planting is seen at 66% complete. The group made no production updates to any of the three crops this week.
Private South American ag consultancy Agroconsult said this week, following a recent crop tour, that they now see winter corn production in Brazil at 115.8 MMTs, which is up from their May estimate of 112.1 MMTs but still below the 125.3 MMTs seen last year. The group sees total production this year at 144.1 MMTs, which compares to the USDA’s current estimate of 139.0 MMTs.
The International Grains Council on Thursday raised its forecast for world corn production in the 2026/27 season by 10 million tons to 1.310 billion tons, mostly as the result of increased production figures for both Argentina and India. If accurate, the figure would still be down from the 1.339 billion tons seen in the 2025/26 season.
On the opposite side of the production fence, France’s ag ministry said this week that corn production in the country could fall by as much as 30% compared to last year, as damage from a record heat wave adds to what was already a sharp decline in planted area. That said, some farmers and groups representing them say the 30% is a far cry from reality, and that actual losses could be far worse. France last year produced 13.2 MMTs of corn, and a 30% reduction would drop production below 10 MMTs. Of note, Euronext corn futures are up nearly 10% over the last week.
According to weekly data from the USDA, barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending June 20th totaled 538k tons, which was up 4% on the week prior. Corn shipments in the week at 352k tons were up 10% on the week, while soybean shipments at 153k tons were down 14%. STL barge freight rates were quoted at $14.76/short ton, down 44 cents from the week prior.
Weather forecasts have rains across the central and south-central parts of the Midwest the next 24 hours or so but then remain in good agreement on a pattern shift occurring into next week as high pressure builds across the eastern US and turns things off hotter and drier. We’ve talked about it all week, but the heat is likely welcome by most in the short term; the question though is how long does the ridge limit Corn Belt rainfall and how far will current soil moisture levels be able to take the crop with July weather being critical for corn production.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 06-26-2026
Good morning.
Commodity markets are broadly lower this morning to begin wrapping up the week, driven in part by lower trade in the energy markets despite headlines this morning that a vessel had been struck with a missile near Oman. The news brings fresh doubt to what continues to be an ongoing situation, with most somewhat on edge as to just how long shipping through one of the world’s busiest water ways is going to remain functioning. Otherwise, we would expect position adjustment to be the main theme in the ag markets going into the weekend as traders prepare for Tuesday’s USDA updates.
Corn futures to start Friday morning are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 6-8 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 11-12 cents lower.
The USDA released a slew of livestock data on Thursday. First, the quarterly Hog and Pigs report showed the US hog herd as of June 1 at 73.7 million head, which was down slightly from March but nearly identical to the June figure last year. The report showed breeding inventory at 5.88 million head, which was down 1% from last year, and showed market hog inventory at 67.8 million head, which was up just fractionally from last year.
Next, monthly cold storage data showed US stocks of red meat in freezers during the month of May at 872.5 million pounds, which was down just 0.1% from the April figure but down nearly 1% from May of last year. Frozen beef supplies totaled 403 million pounds, down 1.1% from last year, while frozen pork supplies totaled 452 million pounds, up 0.3% from last year.
Lastly, monthly livestock slaughter data for May showed commercial red meat production in the US during the month at 4.10 billion pounds, which was down nearly 8% from April and down a little over 6% from May of last year. Beef production at 1.95 billion pounds was down 8% from last year, and pork production at 2.14 billion pounds was down 4% from last year.
Weekly crop data from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange showed another steady week of activity across Argentina. The report showed corn harvest advanced just 3% on the week to 52% complete, while soybean harvest has wrapped up (98% complete) and wheat planting is seen at 66% complete. The group made no production updates to any of the three crops this week.
Private South American ag consultancy Agroconsult said this week, following a recent crop tour, that they now see winter corn production in Brazil at 115.8 MMTs, which is up from their May estimate of 112.1 MMTs but still below the 125.3 MMTs seen last year. The group sees total production this year at 144.1 MMTs, which compares to the USDA’s current estimate of 139.0 MMTs.
The International Grains Council on Thursday raised its forecast for world corn production in the 2026/27 season by 10 million tons to 1.310 billion tons, mostly as the result of increased production figures for both Argentina and India. If accurate, the figure would still be down from the 1.339 billion tons seen in the 2025/26 season.
On the opposite side of the production fence, France’s ag ministry said this week that corn production in the country could fall by as much as 30% compared to last year, as damage from a record heat wave adds to what was already a sharp decline in planted area. That said, some farmers and groups representing them say the 30% is a far cry from reality, and that actual losses could be far worse. France last year produced 13.2 MMTs of corn, and a 30% reduction would drop production below 10 MMTs. Of note, Euronext corn futures are up nearly 10% over the last week.
According to weekly data from the USDA, barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending June 20th totaled 538k tons, which was up 4% on the week prior. Corn shipments in the week at 352k tons were up 10% on the week, while soybean shipments at 153k tons were down 14%. STL barge freight rates were quoted at $14.76/short ton, down 44 cents from the week prior.
Weather forecasts have rains across the central and south-central parts of the Midwest the next 24 hours or so but then remain in good agreement on a pattern shift occurring into next week as high pressure builds across the eastern US and turns things off hotter and drier. We’ve talked about it all week, but the heat is likely welcome by most in the short term; the question though is how long does the ridge limit Corn Belt rainfall and how far will current soil moisture levels be able to take the crop with July weather being critical for corn production.
Have a great day.
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