Grain Comments: 06.26.25

Good morning. CBOT markets are higher this morning for the first time this week, as new contract lows in the $ index have allowed ag values to work to the upside early on this morning. Like we mentioned yesterday, with the USDA data set for release on Monday, we are likely also seeing some measure of profit taking/position squaring today by the short side of the aisle, which we would assume could continue through tomorrow and into the weekend. Otherwise, forecasts continue to be mostly conducive to crop development, with the critical pollination period just weeks away, and we have little new of note this morning on the ongoing situation in the Middle East. Corn futures to start Thursday are trading 1-2 cents higher, soybean futures are trading mixed, and the Chicago wheat market is trading near unchanged. Products are quietly lower, soybean meal is down $1-2/ton, and soybean oil is down 5-10 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are up around 50 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 100 points, and the US$ index is down 30-40 points; the S&P500 is up 20 points and the NASDAQ is up 120 points.

Today’s Reports: Weekly Export Sales; Weekly Jobless Claims; Final Q1 GDP; Final Q1 PCE; Monthly Durable Goods Orders

• This morning’s weekly export sales report for the week ending June 19th is expected to show old crop sales similar to last week, with corn seen between 500k-1.2 mil MTs and soybeans between 200k-600k MTs. On the new crop, corn sales are seen between 100k-350k MTs, soybean sales are seen between 0-150k MTs, and wheat is seen between 300k-600k MTs.

• Yesterday’s monthly cold storage report from the USDA for June showed total US frozen red meat supplies at 878.7 mil lbs, which would be down 2% from May and down 4% from June of last year. Frozen beef supplies were seen at 407.8 mil lbs, down just 1% from last year, while frozen pork supplies were seen at 451.0 mil lbs, down 7% from last year. To view the full report, please click here.

• Statistics Canada is set to release their final principal acreage estimates for the current season tomorrow; according to a survey of Bloomberg analysts, the data is expected to show total wheat area at 27.7 mil acres, which would be up 0.2 mil acres from the March estimate and up 0.9 mil acres from last year. Canola acreage is seen at 21.9 mil acres compared to 21.6 in March and 22.0 last year, while soybean acres are seen down 0.1 mil from both last year and March at 5.6 mil acres.

• A coalition of US biofuel trade organizations has continued to express concern over the failure by US Congress to approve a tax credit bill for 2025, warning that a lot of biomass-based diesel producers will not be able to continue producing into 2026 without such legislation. The current tax bill passed by the US House and being debated by the Senate includes 45Z tax credits, but they wouldn’t go into effect until 2026 as written currently, meaning producers would get zero credits for 2025 after the blender’s credit around previously expired in December.

• The USDA’s quarterly hogs and pigs report is scheduled to be released today after the markets close; the report is expected to show US hog inventory as of June 1 at 74.77 mil head, which would be down just 0.2% from last year. Breeding inventory is seen down 0.1% from last year at 6.004 mil head, while the amount of market hogs is seen down 0.2% at 68.769 mil head.

• Private Black Sea Ag Consultancy SovEcon on Wednesday again further raised its estimate of Russia’s wheat crop in the current season, going from 82.8 MMTs previously to now 83.0 MMTs, which matches the current USDA estimate. They also raised their total Russian grain forecast from 127.6 MMTs in May to now 129.5 MMTs.

• According to sources familiar with the situation, Chinese feed makers have booked 30,000 MTs of Argentine soymeal for July shipment; this marks the first such purchase after Beijing lifted import restrictions on the product in 2019. Said one Singapore-based trader, “This is just a test case. If it goes through China’s inspection and quarantine, we expect more deals.” The sale reflects ongoing efforts by Chinese feed makers to ensure supplies should soybean purchases be effected by the trade war with the US.

• President Trump said on Wednesday that he sees the Israel/Iran conflict as “over for now”, adding that he was scheduled to meet with Iran next week. Trump said he would likely seek a commitment to end their nuclear ambitions, but there wasn’t anything overly new on the situation this morning as this has been his main goal with Iran from the get-go.

• As was the case yesterday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell again didn’t say much of note in his second day of Congressional testimony. However, Powell was in the headlines nonetheless, as President Trump said he had “three or four” people in mind to head the Federal Reserve when Powell’s term ends next year. The remarks come as Trump has continually expressed frustration with Powell, who he appointed to head the Fed during his first term in 2018.