Grain Comments: 06-30-2023

Good morning:

Both the spot July and key new-crop Dec corn contracts have given up right around a dollar in barely over a week, steadying out those morning ahead of what is often a wild card in the quarterly stocks release. Problem areas remain for the 2023 crop, but forecasts have shifted overall. 

Rain fell from NE through the MO/IA border into IL and IN over the past 24 hours, on tap again today on a similar track; chances continue from west to east through Sunday, with the next system coming mid-next week, leading into a wet extended forecast. Temps remain below normal into mid-July. 

The primary story in today’s trade will be the release of the long-awaited revised acreage and quarterly stocks report. On the inventory side trade is mostly expected to see a decline in reserves from a year ago. The average trade guess on US corn stocks as of June 1st is 4.25 billion bu (bbu). This is 99 million bu (mbu) less than the year ago inventory of 4.349 bbu. The average soybean inventory guess is 805 mbu, down a large 162 mbu from last year’s 968 mbu. June 1st wheat stocks are estimated at 613 mbu, an 86 mbu decline on the year. As for acreage, trade is expecting minimal changes from the March planting intentions report. Corn acres are now projected at 91.9 million compared to 92 million in March. Soybean acres are expected to come in at 87.7 million, up 200,000 from the March intentions. Total wheat acreage is projected at 49.7 million acres, down 200,000 from the March estimate. Last year the United States planted acres of 88.6 million on corn, 87.5 million on soybeans, and 45.7 million of wheat. As soon as these are released trade will incorporate them into balance sheets ahead of the July WASDE update. While these numbers will drive today’s trade, market attention will quickly revert to weather and demand for daily price discovery.  

Have a great weekend!