Good morning.
Mid-week trade started mixed at the CBOT on Wednesday, as further overnight strength in the soybean oil market has pulled soybeans higher again this morning. The corn market, meanwhile, has again failed to gain any upside momentum in the overnight hours, with prices trading lower this morning but at least above yesterday’s lows. For the rest of the week, we see it likely that talk surrounding Trump’s tax bill that made it through the Senate yesterday will increase ahead of his self-imposed July 4th deadline, while otherwise, it continues to be a waiting game until corn pollination in a couple more weeks to see if Mother Nature is going to give the bull camp anything to get excited about. As the old saying goes, “the trend is your friend”, and we see the trend staying mostly lower in the short term. Corn futures to start on Wednesday are trading 3-4 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 4-7 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 2-3 cents lower. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down $1-2/ton, and soybean oil is up 70-80 points, new contract lows again overnight for meal. Outside markets are mostly higher, crude oil futures are up 60-70 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 40 points, and the US$ index is up 20 points; the S&P500 is unchanged, and the NASDAQ is down 40 points.
This morning’s weekly ethanol production report for the week ending June 27th is expected to show average daily production in the week between 1.050 – 1.074 mil bbls, while stocks in the week are seen between 23.904 – 24.504 mil bbls.
USDA yesterday afternoon released updated monthly soybean crush and corn grind data for the month of May. The reports showed May US soybean crush at 204 mil bu, while corn used for ethanol in the month was seen at 449 mil bu; both figures were higher than last month. Soybean oil stocks as of May 31 were seen at 1.876 bil lbs., which was down more than 5% from April.
The CME Group on Tuesday evening assigned another 927 contracts of soybean meal for delivery today, along with 424 contracts of soybean oil, 129 contracts of KC wheat, 78 contracts of corn, and 1 contract of Chicago wheat.
According to private Brazilian consultancy Celeres, farmers here should expect to continue seeing price pressure in the short term, as this year’s record crop will likely cause ending stocks to be up some 4+ MMTs from last year. The group added that they see total production at 147.6 MMTs, which compares to a May estimate of 135.4 MMTs. Said the group, “The likelihood of the market absorbing the entire volume of corn produced is low, resulting in more stockpiling and continued pressure on prices.”
Data from the Rosario Grain Exchange, released yesterday, showed Argentina exported a record 64.5 MMTs of grains and related products in the first six months of 2025, while also showing a single month record in June of 23.53 MMTs; the June figure accounted for more than 30% of the total figure, as producers rushed to make sales ahead of the scheduled tax increase that went into effect on Tuesday.
China’s Fufeng group, which is based in Hong Kong and process corn into biochemical products, said in an emailed statement to Bloomberg this week that it would be looking for a new site to build a wet corn mill on in the US after plans for a $700 million facility in Grand Forks, ND fell through in recent years due to push back from concerns over foreign entities owning land near US military sites. According to Bloomberg, one possible location for the new site could be in Douglas Co. in central IL, but it is unclear this morning exactly how likely that is or what that timeline might look like.
Circling back to the “Big Beautiful Bill”, House lawmakers today are expected to vote on the Senate’s version of the bill that was approved yesterday, while sources familiar say resistance is expected from House Republicans despite Trump’s repeated calls to come together to get the bill pushed through.
White House chatter regarding trade deals in recent days has focused on India and Japan for the most part, though tones regarding the two partners have been quite different; Trump has continued to indicate that a deal with Japan was unlikely, threatening 35% tariffs yesterday, while things are seemingly going better with India despite no official announcement being made yet. The July 9th deadline for deals to be made, which Trump said yesterday would not be extended, is just one week from today.
On the weather front this morning, the EU model is marginally wetter through the western/northwestern Corn Belt Saturday/Sunday and into the first part of next week but otherwise remains dry for the Midwest the next few days to wrap up this week. Better rains are then expected to return to the area though, with totals of 1-2″expected from TX to MN and then east between now and the end of the day next Friday.
Still have little to nothing new to report on the temperature side, as models continue to be in good agreement on cooler air lingering in the south-central US the rest of this week and into next week, while areas both to the east and the west stay warmer than average. As we’ve mentioned all week, any extreme heat appears to be confined to the PNW and areas west of the Rockies, with Midwest highs just slightly above avg for the most part from now through mid-July.
In the week two period, the GFS forecast is downright wet, with most all of the eastern half of the US expected to see above average precipitation potential July 10-16; the EU model is similar but doesn’t have the wet bias quite as far north or west as the GFS does. Regardless, lingering precipitation into the pollination period for the bulk of the Corn Belt is positive for crop development and will act to limit price rallies so long as it remains in the forecast.
Have a great day.
Grain Comments: 07-02-2025
Good morning.
Mid-week trade started mixed at the CBOT on Wednesday, as further overnight strength in the soybean oil market has pulled soybeans higher again this morning. The corn market, meanwhile, has again failed to gain any upside momentum in the overnight hours, with prices trading lower this morning but at least above yesterday’s lows. For the rest of the week, we see it likely that talk surrounding Trump’s tax bill that made it through the Senate yesterday will increase ahead of his self-imposed July 4th deadline, while otherwise, it continues to be a waiting game until corn pollination in a couple more weeks to see if Mother Nature is going to give the bull camp anything to get excited about. As the old saying goes, “the trend is your friend”, and we see the trend staying mostly lower in the short term. Corn futures to start on Wednesday are trading 3-4 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 4-7 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 2-3 cents lower. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down $1-2/ton, and soybean oil is up 70-80 points, new contract lows again overnight for meal. Outside markets are mostly higher, crude oil futures are up 60-70 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 40 points, and the US$ index is up 20 points; the S&P500 is unchanged, and the NASDAQ is down 40 points.
This morning’s weekly ethanol production report for the week ending June 27th is expected to show average daily production in the week between 1.050 – 1.074 mil bbls, while stocks in the week are seen between 23.904 – 24.504 mil bbls.
USDA yesterday afternoon released updated monthly soybean crush and corn grind data for the month of May. The reports showed May US soybean crush at 204 mil bu, while corn used for ethanol in the month was seen at 449 mil bu; both figures were higher than last month. Soybean oil stocks as of May 31 were seen at 1.876 bil lbs., which was down more than 5% from April.
The CME Group on Tuesday evening assigned another 927 contracts of soybean meal for delivery today, along with 424 contracts of soybean oil, 129 contracts of KC wheat, 78 contracts of corn, and 1 contract of Chicago wheat.
According to private Brazilian consultancy Celeres, farmers here should expect to continue seeing price pressure in the short term, as this year’s record crop will likely cause ending stocks to be up some 4+ MMTs from last year. The group added that they see total production at 147.6 MMTs, which compares to a May estimate of 135.4 MMTs. Said the group, “The likelihood of the market absorbing the entire volume of corn produced is low, resulting in more stockpiling and continued pressure on prices.”
Data from the Rosario Grain Exchange, released yesterday, showed Argentina exported a record 64.5 MMTs of grains and related products in the first six months of 2025, while also showing a single month record in June of 23.53 MMTs; the June figure accounted for more than 30% of the total figure, as producers rushed to make sales ahead of the scheduled tax increase that went into effect on Tuesday.
China’s Fufeng group, which is based in Hong Kong and process corn into biochemical products, said in an emailed statement to Bloomberg this week that it would be looking for a new site to build a wet corn mill on in the US after plans for a $700 million facility in Grand Forks, ND fell through in recent years due to push back from concerns over foreign entities owning land near US military sites. According to Bloomberg, one possible location for the new site could be in Douglas Co. in central IL, but it is unclear this morning exactly how likely that is or what that timeline might look like.
Circling back to the “Big Beautiful Bill”, House lawmakers today are expected to vote on the Senate’s version of the bill that was approved yesterday, while sources familiar say resistance is expected from House Republicans despite Trump’s repeated calls to come together to get the bill pushed through.
White House chatter regarding trade deals in recent days has focused on India and Japan for the most part, though tones regarding the two partners have been quite different; Trump has continued to indicate that a deal with Japan was unlikely, threatening 35% tariffs yesterday, while things are seemingly going better with India despite no official announcement being made yet. The July 9th deadline for deals to be made, which Trump said yesterday would not be extended, is just one week from today.
On the weather front this morning, the EU model is marginally wetter through the western/northwestern Corn Belt Saturday/Sunday and into the first part of next week but otherwise remains dry for the Midwest the next few days to wrap up this week. Better rains are then expected to return to the area though, with totals of 1-2″expected from TX to MN and then east between now and the end of the day next Friday.
Still have little to nothing new to report on the temperature side, as models continue to be in good agreement on cooler air lingering in the south-central US the rest of this week and into next week, while areas both to the east and the west stay warmer than average. As we’ve mentioned all week, any extreme heat appears to be confined to the PNW and areas west of the Rockies, with Midwest highs just slightly above avg for the most part from now through mid-July.
In the week two period, the GFS forecast is downright wet, with most all of the eastern half of the US expected to see above average precipitation potential July 10-16; the EU model is similar but doesn’t have the wet bias quite as far north or west as the GFS does. Regardless, lingering precipitation into the pollination period for the bulk of the Corn Belt is positive for crop development and will act to limit price rallies so long as it remains in the forecast.
Have a great day.
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