Grain Comments: 07-05-2023

Good morning:

We’re headed for an old-timey grain market open this morning after a volatile stretch of trade through the June 30th reports and the July 4th holiday weekend; we’d favor a lower start to the rest of the week after U.S. corn ratings finally stemmed their decline this week. Still need to see more widespread rains going forward, but it’s a start heading into July.

Rain fell chiefly in the western corn belt over the past 48 hours, more scattered into the north-central belt with amounts mostly disappointing there, save for a good chunk on the MN/WI border. The rain track will shift southward this work week, with good amounts seen through the weekend in NE/KS down through MO and southern IL, and some lesser amounts in the ECB. Extended maps continue to run on the wetter side of north going into the 6-10 day, a bit more varied for the 11-15 day, at least for the heart of the belt; temperatures remain cooler than average now right through the middle of July.

The US corn crop is now rated 51% Good/Excellent, a 1% gain on the week. The Poor/Very Poor rating held at 15% of the crop. Silking is taking place on 8% of the crop, 1% behind normal. The soybean crop is rated 50% G/E, down 1% on the week. Pods have been set on 4% of the US soybean crop with 2% being average. The spring wheat crop rating declined again and now stands at 48% G/E, down 2% from last week. The winter wheat crop rating held steady on the week at 40% G/E. Harvest of the winter crop is now at 37% complete. Some market analysts are looking for past current crop ratings and feel recent rains across the US have been more beneficial that the current condition data suggest. Some now have the US corn yield back between 174 and 176 bushels per acre and feel it could go higher. This would put the average yield close to the USDA forecasted 181.5 bushels per acre. There is more interest on the US soybean yield which so far is holding above the key 50 bushel per acre estimate.

Have a great day!