Grain Comments: 07-07-2023

Good morning:

Wheat was the loss leader overnight, but soybeans took the largest share of volume, continuing to take profits off Monday’s four plus month high for the most-traded November contract. Talks are occurring between Black Sea region officials today regarding the Black Sea deal and prisoner swaps, though Russian rhetoric has remained constant since the deal was extended last time—they are not in favor of another extension when the deal expires in ten days. U.S. crop concerns remain but rains today and tomorrow could go a long way towards easing those issues, with another round expected next week as well. Crop ratings should at least be steady again next Monday.

Rain was scattered mostly in the WCB and Plains over the past 24 hours and remained there this morning, looking heavy there today and tomorrow with the best amounts seen in the SW half of the belt and southern Plains. Better coverage is seen over the next five days for the rest of the belt as well, though with lighter amounts for others. 6–10-day maps continue to run on the cool and wet side of normal, though 11–15-day forecasts are definitely (but slowly) trending back towards normal in both respects.

The delayed export sales report will be released today and once again trade expecting low old crop numbers. The string of lower export totals has become less of a surprise for trade and given the market the general idea that old crop demand is overestimated, especially on corn. Soybean exports are running closer to USDA projections and the Census data indicates they may top what the USDA has projected. More interest is starting to be placed on new crop export sales. These are well behind normal for corn, soybeans, and wheat at this time. The new crop marketing year is just getting underway on wheat and the deficiency on those sales will likely start to rebound in the near future. There is less optimism on corn and soybean sales as the record crops out of Brazil will pressure Us sales for the next several months. There are other factors that are impacting on our export demand though, and one of the top ones is the high value of the US dollar. When combined with the US already being higher priced than most other sources this only makes our offers that much more costly. Geopolitical developments and a simple lack of demand are impacting US exports as well.

Have a great day!