Grain Comments: 07-10-2026

Good morning.

Ag markets are mostly lower this morning to get report day started, with the row crop markets having spent most of the overnight session in the red on light volume while the products continue to trade mixed. We’ve talked about it all week, but amid pollination season beginning and traders more worried about weather at this point than anything else, today’s numbers are likely to be more a blip on the radar as opposed to some sort of trend altering event barring something out of left field from the USDA. And on top of that, with it being a Friday in July, we imagine some sort of position squaring goes on into the end of the day this afternoon, with traders not overly keen on getting caught the wrong way on a flipping weather forecast should it occur over the next 48 hours.

Corn futures to start on Friday morning are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 1-2 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 5-6 cents higher.

Weekly crop data from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange in Argentina showed corn harvest advanced less than 4% on the week to 56% complete, which is 14% behind last year due to ongoing high moisture levels. Wheat planting, meanwhile, was seen advancing 7% on the week to 88% complete.

Today marks the deadline for the USTR’s office to receive public comments on the US-China board of trade regarding its scope and operation. The deadline doesn’t mean anything immediately for markets, but it is important from the standpoint that it will help in determining which non-sensitive export products, including ags, should be eligible for reciprocal tariff reductions.

There’s little news out of the Middle East this morning, with risk seemingly still elevated despite no overnight news regarding fresh military action from either side. It’s unclear this morning exactly where things stand regarding the ceasefire that Trump said this week was over, as he made follow-up comments indicating a return to all-out war was seemingly unlikely. Crude oil futures are up some 30-50 cents/bbl this morning.

Weekend weather across the Midwest looks to feature ongoing scattered thunderstorm activity across the southern and south-central portions of the region throughout the day today and into Saturday, with the moisture then working further south by the end of the weekend and into the first part of next week. Central and northern areas then see limited rainfall the next seven days or so, as high pressure ridging in the northwestern US pushes thunderstorms further north into Canada and away from most ag regions in the US.

The high pressure will bring heat into the upper part of the Midwest early next week, but the most extreme temperatures look to stay isolated to the intermountain west for the most part, with cooler than normal temps actually expected across the southeastern quarter of the country from KS to the Carolinas for most of the week next week. Stress across the upper Midwest will need monitoring, but the coming event doesn’t look to be overly prolonged and soil moisture levels in a lot of these areas are adequate at worst.

Have a great day.