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Grain Comments: 07-14-2023

Good morning:

The grains are looking strong into the end of the week with the feed grains bouncing off lows and soybeans heading back towards move highs from July 3rd. The July USDA S&D was bearish at first glance, but the trade is realizing that government yield estimates are still optimistic, in the sense that both are essentially at record or near-record levels. Crop ratings should rebound again on Monday after some crucial rains this week, but another widespread precipitation system is looking hard to come by, and extended forecasts keep trying to trend towards warmer and drier conditions. Wheat is matching absolute double-digit gains this morning with the Black Sea grain export deal set to expire on Monday; an extension would a surprise at this point, and the trade is interested to see if Ukraine can produce workarounds.

Mostly light and scattered rains were seen over the past 24 hours, most notably in central NE as well as NW IA and surroundings; more chances are seen today and tomorrow with scattered action continuing over the next five days, resulting in at least some type of precipitation for most of the belt. Extended maps continue to run mixed, with the NWS maps remaining on the wetter side of normal through the end of the month while private forecasts turn a bit drier. Normal to above-normal temps are set to move in by the 11–15-day period.

Crop prices are looking to end the week on a high note. Heat appears to return to the forecast the second half of the month while below average rain is possible. Rain recently has been spotty, with some areas of the corn belt enjoying crops supporting rain and others struggling to get enough moisture. Crop conditions on Monday will likely show an increase after some good rain that fell this week. Commitment of Trades data today will likely show funds remain long soybean futures, while the corn position is likely closer to neutral. Continued dollar weakness would in theory support crop futures, one supportive point in the market.

Have a great day!

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